CMIP5模型给RCP8.5的最高和最低变暖吗?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 07 - t17:45:22z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/12853 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/12853 4 CMIP5模型给RCP8.5的最高和最低变暖吗? generic_user //www.hoelymoley.com/users/545 2017 - 12 - 07 - t16:39:19z 2017 - 12 - 11 - t13:26:55z < p >问题是标题中。我在做影响研究和需要选择下载GCM运行前的几个场景。想选择一个低的和一个高,一个在路中间的。我是一个经济学家,而不是一个气候科学家。< / p > < p >在我的经验中,HadGEM已经相当悲观。但我欣赏一些可引用的引用,理想情况下策划气候敏感性的模型。< / p >

To add, I'll be downloadading a few of several model runs from a dataset of publicly available downscaling experiments. I'll then analyze each climate model, and then average the results of each experiment to form an ensemble. It is known that one should not average GCM runs until the final step in one's analysis.

 //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/12853/which-cmip5-models-give-the-highest-and-lowest-warming-for-rcp8-5/12874 # 12874 2 回答的戈登·斯坦格CMIP5模型给RCP8.5的最高和最低变暖吗? 戈登斯坦格 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/4507 2017 - 12 - 11 - t12:09:32z 2017 - 12 - 11 - t12:09:32z < p >没有模型始终收益率最高或最低的变暖,因为每个模型的优点和缺点,依赖于概念上的重点。这随纬度,大陆性,邻近的水/湖泊,存在/没有冰和山脉,区域大气过程的意义——这两种物理和化学,区域气流优势如季风和飓风,等等。每个模型校准工作要么辉煌,或者完全怀疑地,根据模型概念化。没有“一刀切”(环境)。< / p > < p >说,然而,我经常使用CMIP-5合奏列在世界银行气候变化知识门户——仅仅因为它是方便和容易获得。你可以找到它在< a href = " http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm < / > -点击世界地图的地区/国家/区域的兴趣,并选择你想要的参数。这不是完整的整体,但16选择模型,似乎工作得很好——至少大部分时间。< / p > < p >这是最近的一个例子来自尼泊尔:扫描最大和最小月度温度,“giss-r”一般产生了最热的温度,虽然偶尔有个月最热的是“ccsm-4”。最酷的气温大多是由“noresm 1 - m”虽然偶尔从miroc esm的个月最冷的。然而,这仅仅是一个随机的例子。我不相信这样的结论是一致的在世界各地。< / p > < p >为什么专注于最酷和最热的模型? Doesn't it make more sense to work with the ensemble median? I find that the relative distribution of model results is roughly similar regardless of the RCP. I usually quote RCP 4.5 or 6.0. RCP 8.5 is too pessimistic. Does anyone still seriously think that RCP 2.8 is attainable?

My advice is to spend a day picking temperature trends from the WB-CMIP model portal for a wide range of environments, and only then draw your conclusions.

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