北极冰消失速度比IPCC模型说的?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 09 - t00:41:24z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/13045 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/13045 8 北极冰消失速度比IPCC模型说的? 吉米撒尿 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/11238 2018 - 01 - 06 - t12:07:41z 2018 - 01 - 09 - t21:04:26z < p >的北极海冰观测符合政府间气候变化专门委员会预测说,他们应该是什么?同样是冰减少在一个指数或线性方式?< / p > < p >为例,从< a href = " https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change/ " rel = " noreferrer " > https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change/ < / >: < / p > < blockquote > < p >投影:政府间气候变化专门委员会一直自信地预测,北极冰盖是安全的,至少到2050年甚至2100年。现实:夏季冰层变薄比每一个气候预测,今天科学家预测无冰的北极,而不是几十年。< / p > < /引用> < p >,然后这种预测是基于左边的曲线(发现< a href = " http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/04/trends-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume.html " rel = " noreferrer " > < / >) < br >或直右边(发现< a href = " https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/01/low-sea-ice-extent-continues-in-both-poles/ " rel = " noreferrer " > < / >) < br >(都从国家冰雪数据中心的数据):< / p > < p > < a href = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/W847O.png " rel = " noreferrer " > < img src = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/W847O.png " alt = " icecomparison " > < / > < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/13045/-/13066 # 13066 7 基思·麦克回答的是北极冰消失速度比IPCC模型说的? 基思·麦克 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/6535 2018 - 01 - 09 - t21:04:26z 2018 - 01 - 09 - t21:04:26z < p > < a href = " http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp = 605 " rel = " noreferrer > IPCC说< / >“虽然哈德利中心的气候模型低估了海冰范围和厚度,两个模型的趋势是相似的。两种模型预测持续降低海冰厚度和范围(Vinnikov et al ., 1999),因此,到2050年,海冰范围减少到约80%的面积在20世纪中叶覆盖。”The graph on this IPCC page shows a predicted decline in annual average extent of about half a million km$^2$ from 2000 to now. Your monthly average graph shows a somewhat faster decline over this period.

The SA article talks about the much more drastic decline in minimum (September) extent. enter image description here I can't find any IPCC prediction of minimums, so you could say the IPCC failed to predict it or you could say it's in accord with what the IPCC did predict about annual averages.

Ice volume is also declining rapidly. enter image description here
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