土拨鼠日神话背后的科学,地球科学堆栈交换江南电子竞技平台江南体育网页版 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 10 - t20:52:09z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/13449 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/13449 6 土拨鼠日神话背后的科学 安东尼X //www.hoelymoley.com/users/1210 2018 - 02年- 26 - t01:30:37z 2021 - 04 - 14 - t18:30:48z < p >神话是这样的:如果土拨鼠看到他的影子在2月2日,六个周的冬天还没有到来,但是如果他不,春天就在眼前。< / p > < p >我想知道如果有任何科学这个神话的背后,或者一本基于实际的观察与季节相关的天气模式。< / p > < p >土拨鼠,我想到天空条件和季节。< / p > < p >具体地说,我在加拿大安大略省南部,在最寒冷的冬天通常是在2月的开始。每年的这个时候,我们常常在北极高压“穹顶”;天空经常是清楚的。随着冷了温和的天气,我们经常会在的地方,或者至少它来回扫了我们,提供很多的,寒冷的天气,之后在极地气团的边界的地方最终撤退北部和春天的到来。< / p > < p >这是一个简化吗?如果不是,这种模式可能的起源神话:通常意味着冬天仍然住在晴朗的天空,更不稳定的天气意味着冬天即将给春天吗? < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/13449/-/21091 # 21091 0 维多利亚Rossiter回答的土拨鼠日神话背后的科学 维多利亚Rossiter //www.hoelymoley.com/users/22228 2021 - 04 - 13 - t18:08:56z 2021 - 04 - 13 - t18:08:56z < p >土拨鼠日与科学没有任何关系。它是基于一个叫做Imbolc异教徒的节日。这是他们的传统的春天和基督徒称之为圣烛节的开始。< / p > < p > < a href = " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imbolc " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imbolc < / > < a href = " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day < / > < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/13449/-/21102 # 21102 2 BarocliniCplusplus回答的土拨鼠日神话背后的科学 BarocliniCplusplus //www.hoelymoley.com/users/704 2021 - 04 - 14 - t18:30:48z 2021 - 04 - 14 - t18:30:48z < p >这是一个神话。说,这是不科学的也许不是最好的措辞,但< a href = " https://www.livescience.com/32974-punxsutawney-phil-weather-prediction-accuracy.html " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >土拨鼠日不是最准确的预测方法在< / >。科学的东西,< a href = " https://www.livescience.com/20896-science-scientific-method.html " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >它需要遵循科学的方法< / >。考虑到土拨鼠日遵循的神话:< / p > < ul > <李>土拨鼠,看到它的影子就会害怕,寻求庇护的6个多星期的即将到来的寒冷冬天,或者< /李> <李>土拨鼠,没有看到它的影子是肯定的,寒冷不会< /李> < / ul > < p >,这意味着< A href = " https://www.groundhog.org/legend-and-lore " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >源自一首< / >现在好天气意味着恶劣天气后,反之亦然。没有定义“冬天”或“春天”我问题的可测试性的假设。在现实中,< a href = " https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?m1=02&d1=02&y1=2021&m2=03&d2=20&y2=2021" rel="nofollow noreferrer">astronomical spring occurs 6 weeks and 4 days after Groundhog day, making the distinction between the groundhog's "definition" of spring entirely subjective. But translating a subjective metric into an objective criteria, it is less accurate than the Farmer's Almanac of 50%.

If you want a more likely explanation on why a groundhog might behave the way it does, one need not look much farther than a picture from Punxsutawney, PA on groundhog day:

Groundhog day, 2020 in Punxatawney PA, source: PennLive.com

Given such a crowd, will an animal react more about the crowd or the upcoming weather? My guess is that if you saw such a crazed crowd show up to your house at 7:25 AM, you would want to crawl into a hole too. A groundhog must go into it's hole at some point, and I don't know of a part of the myth that says that the groundhog must immediately go back into its hole. Doing a groundhog day tradition with so much festivity, scientifically (not necessarily rationally though), be a contaminating factor to any sort of experiment. That is, even slight deviations in how such a thing is conducted (and given that groundhogs like Phil basically live like royalty in comparison to groundhogs in their natural state) make any rigorous evaluation of Phil's prognostication ability questionable.

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