< p >这是一个神话。说,这是不科学的也许不是最好的措辞,但< a href = " https://www.livescience.com/32974-punxsutawney-phil-weather-prediction-accuracy.html " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >土拨鼠日不是最准确的预测方法在< / >。科学的东西,< a href = " https://www.livescience.com/20896-science-scientific-method.html " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >它需要遵循科学的方法< / >。考虑到土拨鼠日遵循的神话:< / p > < ul > <李>土拨鼠,看到它的影子就会害怕,寻求庇护的6个多星期的即将到来的寒冷冬天,或者< /李> <李>土拨鼠,没有看到它的影子是肯定的,寒冷不会< /李> < / ul > < p >,这意味着< A href = " https://www.groundhog.org/legend-and-lore " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >源自一首< / >现在好天气意味着恶劣天气后,反之亦然。没有定义“冬天”或“春天”我问题的可测试性的假设。在现实中,< a href = " https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?m1=02&d1=02&y1=2021&m2=03&d2=20&y2=2021" rel="nofollow noreferrer">astronomical spring occurs 6 weeks and 4 days after Groundhog day, making the distinction between the groundhog's "definition" of spring entirely subjective. But translating a subjective metric into an objective criteria, it is less accurate than the Farmer's Almanac of 50%. If you want a more likely explanation on why a groundhog might behave the way it does, one need not look much farther than a picture from Punxsutawney, PA on groundhog day:
Given such a crowd, will an animal react more about the crowd or the upcoming weather? My guess is that if you saw such a crazed crowd show up to your house at 7:25 AM, you would want to crawl into a hole too. A groundhog must go into it's hole at some point, and I don't know of a part of the myth that says that the groundhog must immediately go back into its hole. Doing a groundhog day tradition with so much festivity, scientifically (not necessarily rationally though), be a contaminating factor to any sort of experiment. That is, even slight deviations in how such a thing is conducted (and given that groundhogs like Phil basically live like royalty in comparison to groundhogs in their natural state) make any rigorous evaluation of Phil's prognostication ability questionable.