对气候变化的地质证据:有过一段与气候变化的速度和今天一样好吗?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 10 - t13:13:33z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/14849 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/14849 6 对气候变化的地质证据:有过一段与气候变化的速度和今天一样好吗? acypher //www.hoelymoley.com/users/13611 2018 - 08 - 11 - t06:46:30z 2019 - 04 - 06 - t20:06:38z < p >大多数气候变化是基于气候统计信息数据在过去的150年是有记录(只要)。这似乎无关紧要的地质时间尺度的地球上的温度变化。< / p > < p >在过去的4亿年里,你曾经有过200年的间隔期间的气候变化是和今天一样好吗? < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/14849/-/14853 # 14853 6 Camilo Rada回答的关于气候变化的地质证据:有过一段与气候变化的速度和今天一样好吗? 卡米洛·Rada //www.hoelymoley.com/users/11908 2018 - 08 - 11 - t16:57:39z 2018 - 08 - 11 - t16:57:39z < p >快速回答:是的。< / p > < p >但请阅读下面的评论和解释:< / p > < p >大多数统计基础不仅仅是关于气候变化的150年的仪器记录。我们有很多好的温度代理回到几千年和7000万年之间。其中包括:树的年轮,增长在珊瑚乐队,分层海洋沉积物、沼泽和湖泊沉积物、石笋和钟乳石,冰核(800000年以上),和同位素组成壳叫有孔虫的单细胞生物。最后一个可以用来估计的温度深海早在7000万年。虽然,同位素组成的解释可能是棘手的,提出的警告不改变概貌这长期的温度记录。这是基于有孔虫壳体温度的重建。< / p > < p > < a href = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/fpzVr.png " rel = " noreferrer " > < img src = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/fpzVr.png " alt = "在这里输入图像描述" > < / > < / p > < p >你可以看到,有很长一段时间气温比今天高得多。然而,当它来的速度改变这个记录没有决议来回答你的问题。作为第一的话,请注意,我们没有一个可靠的温度记录4亿年前,和那些做扩展多个数百万年,分辨率不够好看到快速气候变化事件我们现在正在经历的。然而,< / p > < p >,我们不需要追溯到发现气候变化大于今天我们正在经历的。 Such changes are actually visible in the 800,000 years records recovered from antarctic ice cores. And actually, the best examples come from high-resolution Greenland ice cores that go only about 110,000 years into the past.

One of the most studied quick climate changes is the one after the Younger Dryas about 12,000 years ago. Considering changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, and proxies of temperature, the data suggest that climate change after the Younger Dryas and other previous ones were more dramatic than the cumulative changes in the last 200 years. And such dramatic changes happened in periods as short as 40 years. The end of the Younger Dryas was associated to changes in temperature of 8 °C or maybe up to 15°C regionally, accompanied by two-fold changes in precipitation and methane concentrations (reference 1, reference 2)

Unfortunately the second reference (a Nature paper) is behind a paywall so I'll add here figure 4, the most relevant to this question.

enter image description here

You can see how fast are the changes in methane concentrations and $\delta^{18}O$. As a rough reference, a change of one unit in $\delta^{18}O$ is equivalent to a change in temperature of 2 °C, therefore the big jump in the figure is about 10°C.

Now I could argue that given that agriculture appeared just after that change (~12,000 years ago). When assessing if we have faced in the past a climate changes as dramatic as the one we are observing now you have to focus on what happened after that time. And notably, since then, the climate have been very stable. In fact, the change we are experiencing now is the largest after the invention of agriculture (previous references and this one).

As a corollary, it is important to realize that Earth's climate is much more chaotic and capable of large changes in short periods that what you would think by looking at the written history, and that we have enjoyed a long period of calm that at some point, sooner or later will be followed by changes unprecedented in human history. The equilibrium we have enjoyed might be a kind of unstable equilibrium, and you might not need a very large perturbation to upset that equilibrium and send the system into a large climatic swing.

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