或多或少地会使用如果全球气温上升?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 07 - t13:53:27z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/16112 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/16112 6 或多或少地会使用如果全球气温上升? 马修·刘 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/15052 2019 - 01 - 30 - t16:04:37z 2019 - 03 - 11 - t21:13:36z < p >我认为地球的大部分土地是不可用太冷和太热没有足够的水,擦干哪些可以固定不同水这些地区。< / p > < p >还有海平面上升所以一些土地将水下,但将是一个新的可用的土地的数量相比显得微不足道,更不用说我们可以重塑土地在这些地区,以防止它被水下。< / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/16112/-/16127 # 16127 8 由Camilo Rada回答或多或少地会使用如果全球温度上升? 卡米洛·Rada //www.hoelymoley.com/users/11908 2019 - 01 - 31 - t20:04:02z 2019 - 01 - 31 - t20:41:43z < p >是的。当前气候变化很可能会增加地球上可耕种的土地。然而,它将在一个较高的社会成本和<强> < / >强,生物多样性为代价,我不能强调足够的至关重要的生物多样性对生态系统的健康和人类食品安全。< / p > < p >考虑也类似于采矿、存款的价值不仅是相关矿物质的总量,而且它的浓度,我们也不得不考虑如何强化食品生产所允许的一块土地。在这方面,气候变化可能导致的损失高生产力的领域,只有获得补偿的大片的营养价值在苔原土壤。< / p > < p >您还应该考虑当前种植土地的退化的社会影响和经济损失的粮食生产pole-wards移动。< / p > < p >与某种程度的确定性回答这个问题是非常复杂的,因为我们不知道如何气候会改变,但是一些研究已经解决了这个问题。一个很好的例子就是< A href = " https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1466 - 822 x.2002.00294.x”rel = " noreferrer " >的全球分布可耕种的土地:当前模式和可能的气候变化的敏感性< / >。他们指出:< / p > < blockquote > < p >我们估计,气候变化,全球气候模型模拟,将扩大耕地适宜性一个额外的16%,主要分布在北半球高纬度地区。然而,热带地区(主要是非洲,南美洲北部,墨西哥和中美洲和大洋洲)将经历一个小减少由于气候变化适应性。< / p > < /引用> < p >论文的图4显示了当前全球“土地适宜性指数”。< / p > < p > < a href = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/YmMgb.png " rel = " noreferrer " > < img src = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/YmMgb.png " alt = "在这里输入图像描述" > < / > < / p > < p >你可以看到美国和欧亚大陆北部的大片展示(虽然很夸张的地图投影)的土地不适合种植由于低温。 This data can be downloaded here, and I've used it to plot the following figure that shows the mean cultivation suitability index as a function of latitude. It is also plotted the land area as a function of latitude as derived from ETOPO:

enter image description here

As you can see, pole-wards of 56° there is a significant amount of land of which none is suitable for cultivation. However, it is clear that temperature is not the whole picture, and aridity around 25° of latitude can significantly drop cultivation suitability.

I found interesting to see that the left (equator-wards) side of the main peak in cultivation suitability currently at 37° lies at a latitude with a lot of land, so if that end is lost to aridity, the gain of land on its (right) pole-wards end will be smaller due to the downwards trends of land area towards the pole. Nevertheless, as I mentioned, models suggest climate change will increase the overall land surface suitable for agriculture.

Another study: Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change. Focus on temperature and shows in Fig. 1 how the line that divides temperature regime suitable from cultivation of cereals will migrate northwards under the projected climate change:

enter image description here

However, they highlight the challenges for cultivation in high latitudes, which present a much more dramatic seasonal contrast that traditional crop lands:

By 2099, roughly 76% of the boreal region might reach crop feasible conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible conditions will shift northwards. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

[the cite above was edited for simplification and context]

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