在什么基础,科学家可以预测气候变化的影响吗?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换

在什么基础,科学家可以预测气候变化的影响吗?

2019 - 09 - 29 - t02:03:20z

我不知道很多关于气候变化的主题是诚实的。但是,我最近参加的会谈的主题。作为数学模型和不确定性量化研究的人,一件事,我所知道的是,天气模型非常复杂,非常敏感。天气模型中的误差积累非常快,这使得长期行为模糊或不确定。我的知识是气候相关研究不多,所以这是我所知道的。

I read up a bit on the climate issue and understand that the data suggests that climate change is real. I look at the data (from Nasa website) and agree that it supports that claim.

So my question is not about whether climate change is real or not. My question is how some scientists make claims like "in 50 years..." My guess is that they observe the trends in history and use that as the basis for their prediction. I hope this question is clear. If you have an understanding on the topic, please point me to the right source.

回答列城的基础,科学家可以预测气候变化的影响吗?

2019 - 12 - 19 - t20:57:33z

气候科学似乎是相关的其他类型的科学。只是它一直嘲笑联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会在80年成立后组织。它有很多遗产从物理和有很多气候危机的迹象。

Your question is not fully clear. Some effects are impossible to predict in detail while other is not. Down a prediction of the global temperature and the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ made by ExxonMobile's researcher 1980.

回答约翰什么基础,科学家可以预测气候变化的影响吗?

2019 - 12 - 22 - t14:59:48z

气候不是天气,天气气候不像建模,建模< a href = " //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/20/what-are-the-major-differences-between-weather-models-and-climate-models " >之间的主要区别是什么天气模型和气候模型? < / >。以同样的方式建模一个动物的运动对其一生在一米范围内是非常不同的测量和预测在几代人口变化。或者试图预测沙滩的侵蚀是容易得多比试图预测单个砂粒的运动。 气候模型在许多方面是一个更简单的系统模型,因为你不是试图预测个人当地风模式或完全蒸发。有关答案所说,“在乎飓风在哪里,天气模型和时间/地点会影响土地,而气候模型可能只关心飓风每年的平均数量,而不是那些风暴)的细节。”Scale is a big factor and many thing become easier to predict at a wider scale. At the same time a climate model incorporate many more factors, many thing in weather models are simply left out since they don't change or are not a factor at the scale of the model, even important things like the fact the earth is a round and soils release gases.