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为什么大多数预测气候变化的负面影响?

2020 - 01 - 06 - t13:45:41z

最常提到的正在进行的和预测气候变化的影响是负面的:更多的极端天气影响,更具破坏性的天气,更多的疾病,快速灭绝,等等。 为什么会这样呢? 任何快速变化很明显, 带来许多负面影响。我们人类,以及生物圈,适应当前的条件。任何突然偏离re-adaptation这些条件将痛苦。

But my impression is that several of the commonly mentioned negative effects go beyond than what can be explained by just change. Is this really so? If yes, would a cooling climate (beyond restoring pre-industrial conditions) bring more positive effects?

答案为为什么会最预测气候变化的负面影响?

2020 - 01 - 07 - t18:20:23z

我不认为有任何的影响气候变化,这可以说是特别积极。

The level of CO2 in the atmosphere we're currently experiencing has not been seen on earth for about 800,000 years IPCC AR5 and the consequences of this change in radiative forcing are massive. Particularly as we've engineered this change in the last 150 years or so (ridiculously fast as far as natural systems are concerned). The change is extremely large in magnitude and speed - and this is going to have a huge impact - so I think you're right in that pretty much any change is bad change. My best shot at some positive human results are

1) an ice-free northwest passage round the top of Canada and

2) a marginal improvement in the UK for agriculture

These are of course completely outweighed by the other costs - in both human and natural systems.

答案由Michael Walsby为什么大多数预测气候变化负面的影响吗?

2020 - 01 - 10 - t15:01:20z

已经有很多的负面影响,但也有积极作用。在英国成千上万的老人正在加速的应许之地的路上艰难的冬天,温和的冬天会拯救成千上万的生命。过分炎热的夏季也可以生活成本,但是在英国那些死于寒冷的天气大大超过那些被热浪。另一个有利的影响是,西北和东北通道将开放航运,使船只能够走捷径到目的地,使用更少的燃料,从而减少二氧化碳的排放。另一个好处,只要加热不走得太远,是温暖的气候比寒冷气候更大的生物多样性。当然,这意味着嗜冷物种像矛隼和雷鸟将推高更北的地方或到地面(gyr从未培育在英国,松鸡,和偶尔的猫头鹰)。许多新物种包括小白鹭和牛白鹭已经殖民英国的南部。

A cooler climate would also have both positive and negative effects, but we are not likely to get that for some considerable time.

由jeffronicus回答为什么大多数预测气候变化的负面影响?

2020 - 01 - 12 t02:30:22z

如果你认为气候是什么——典型的范围的温度,降水,和其他气象条件,一个地区的经验,自然和人类社会和文明的事实已经适应了区域气候在全球范围内,然后你可以看到任何实质性的和相对快速变化可能是我们认为负面影响。 这是一个广泛的例证,但举个例子,有一个广阔的北半球适合种植小麦,因为土壤质量的组合,可以沉淀,成长度天(作物热单元)。农场、城市、道路和其他基础设施被修建在这个世代农田,以优化利用现有的条件和降低成本提供小麦市场。更多的作物的热量单位可以使一个地区更有效率,但每日82度以上的高温将开始强调和杀死植物。即使接近两极的土地变得更宜耕——不能保证——只是简单的改变可以在给定的纬度布朗可以减少一个国家养活自己的能力。

There are other ways in which human civilization has adapted to current regional conditions: Communities rely on air conditioning in the summer and/or heating in the winter to make regions tolerable. Harbors and coastal communities are built to suit current sea levels. In general, increased temperatures will make warmer regions less tolerable and more expensive to live in (through cooling and similar costs) and more prone to deadly heat waves, while potentially making colder regions more tolerable and less expensive (through reduced heating costs). Similarly, dramatic cooling would also affect where everything grows, reduce growing degree days for growing plants, and making colder regions less tolerable and more costly.

While attempting to quantify the "Country-level social cost of carbon," a 2018 study in Nature Climate Change by Kate Ricke, et. al. assessed the net economic impact on individual countries and concluded that the costs are "unevenly distributed": "Countries that incur large fractions of the global cost consistently include India, China, Saudi Arabia and the United States."

Northern countries such as Russia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Poland actually receive a slight direct benefit from climate change through factors such as reduced heating costs.

Dikran回答的有袋类动物为什么大多数预测气候变化的负面影响?

2020 - 01 - 15 - t09:59:39z

我想说的原因是因为人类文明,尤其是农业实践,进化和适应工业化以前的气候。这意味着任何实质性变化的气候需要改变我们的文明和农业,这不可避免地是有成本的。如此的原因大多数是负面的变化并不科学,但与我们。