< blockquote > < p >有一个大型的、文档化的共识的估计海平面提高或任何其他更多的“直接”对人类的影响?< / p > < /引用> < p >将在评论说,政府间气候变化专门委员会有一些估计,尽管他们取决于你选择哪个发射的场景。技术总结的< a href = " https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/technical-summary/ts-4sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/ " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >政府间气候变化专门委员会的特别报道,海洋和冰冻圈变化的气候< / >,部分“预测”:< / p > < blockquote > < p >未来GMSL上升(全球平均海平面)由热膨胀引起的,融化的冰川和冰盖和土地蓄水变化,是强烈依赖于代表浓度通路(RCP)排放场景。单反(海平面上升)预计在本世纪末速度在所有场景,包括那些兼容实现温度的长期目标设定在巴黎协议。GMSL之间将上升0.43米(0.29 - -0.59米,可能范围;RCP2.6)和0.84(0.61 - -1.10米,可能范围;RCP8.5) 2100(中等信心)相对于1986 - 2005。< / p > < /引用> < p >对于这个海平面上升对人类人口的意思,最好看看< a href = " https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/spm-section-3/ " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >总结为决策者的同一份报告< / >:< / p > < blockquote > < p >高水位的增加频率可以在很多地方严重影响取决于暴露(高信心)。[…)极端的海平面将会加剧和沿海灾害预测热带气旋强度和降水的增加(高信心)。 Projected changes in waves and tides vary locally in whether they amplify or ameliorate these hazards (medium confidence).
On a more "philosophical" note, it is really difficult to predict the effect on humans because of the prophet's dilemma. If we know bad things are going to happen, we will (or at least we should...) take measures to prevent them. Then the predicted things will not happen, making the prediction seem wrong, even if it was right at the time it was made! So we can predict that the sea level will rise (it will, no question about that), but we cannot predict the effect this rise will have on humans, because they will likely adapt to it before the effect happens.