< p >一篇关于这个昨天发表在《自然气候变化:< A href = " https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558 - 020 - 0697 - 0”rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >砂质海岸的威胁下侵蚀< / > (Vousdoukas et al . 2020年)。< / p > < blockquote > < p >虽然海岸线变化可以广泛的组合结果潜在的腐蚀性或粘连的因素,有明显的因果关系提高海平面和海岸线后退,指着增加海岸侵蚀问题。气候变化也会影响波浪和风暴潮,是沿海形态的重要动力。< / p > < /引用> < p >研究计算预测的海岸线撤退。他们计算四个预测:两个2050,两个2100年,根据气候变化场景(RCP 4.5和8.5 RCP)。这里是结果:< / p > < blockquote > < p >假设没有物理限制潜在的沿海撤退,到本世纪中叶我们项目可能(5 th -第95个百分位)全球平均长期海岸线变化,从-78.1到-1.1 m和-98.1到0.3 m,分别在RCP 4.5和8.5 RCP(负值表示侵蚀)。到本世纪末,腐蚀的趋势变得更加主导我们的项目可能的范围从-164.2到-14.8米和-240在RCP RCP 8.5, 4.5和-35.3米。< / p > < /引用> < p >这是地图上的样子(图1):< / p > < p > < a href = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/tOrsL.png " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < img src = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/tOrsL.png " alt = "图1 Vousdoukas 2020 " > < / > < / p > < p >标题写着:< / p > < blockquote > < p >预计长期海岸线变化。模拟,预测海岸线变化的2050年(a、c)和2100年(b, d)在RCP 4.5 (a, b)和RCP 8.5 (c, d)。值表示中位数变化和积极/消极的价值观,分别表达吸积/侵蚀米,相对于2010年。全球平均中值变化是嵌入文本针对每种情况所示,随着5 th - 95的范围内。 Note that this projected retreat is a combination of two factors: the ambient shoreline change (AC) driven by geological, anthropogenic and other physical factors, and the shoreline retreat due to sea level rise (R). But R is the dominant factor, with a worldwide contribution of 82 % to the total retreat (with regional variations, see their figure 2).
In summary, climate change leads to sea level rise, which in turns leads to coastline erosion. Sea erosion is not the opposite of sea level rising, it is a direct consequence of it.