多少COVID-19影响天气预报?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 08 - 20 - t03:05:59z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/19548 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/19548 11 多少COVID-19影响天气预报? tmh //www.hoelymoley.com/users/20240 2020 - 04 - 03 - t09:12:38z 2020 - 04 - 06 - t07:09:51z < blockquote > < p >世界气象组织(WMO)担心COVID-19流感大流行的影响天气观测和预测的数量和质量,以及大气和气候监测。< / p > < /引用> < p >来源:< a href = " https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-concerned-about-impact-of-covid-19-observing-system " rel = " noreferrer " > https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-concerned-about-impact-of-covid-19-observing-system < / > < / p > < p >显然,飞机发送的气象数据建立天气预报中扮演着重要的角色。由于SARS-CoV-2,天空中飞机比平时更少了,因此更少的数据是可用的。< / p > < p >页面显示的图表统计数据明显下降,然而,有没有数据多少这实际上会增加天气预报的预测误差?< / p > < p >有项目跟踪和定期发布有关天气预报数据错误,帮助分析传入的数据之间的相关性和预测误差? < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/19548/how-much-does-covid-19-affect-weather-forecasts/19549 # 19549 3 答案由BarocliniCplusplus COVID-19多少影响天气预报? BarocliniCplusplus //www.hoelymoley.com/users/704 2020 - 04 - 03 - t12:45:52z 2020 - 04 - 03 - t12:51:57z < p >欢迎光临地球科学本江南体育网页版身!< / p > < p >鉴于危机仍在进行中,我怀疑我们知道的全部范围的影响(预测天气是很困难的事情,预测流感大流行的影响超出我的专长)。但是,至少有一个会议原定t o去被取消了。我知道飞机观察者的缺乏是影响数据同化。除此之外,我不确定。一些假设可能包括:< / p > < ul > <李>是生活质量的变化可能会影响预测精度?李李< / > < >什么影响延迟通信科学研究对预测精度?李李< / > < >这将如何影响未来科学预算?李李< / > < >如何降低飞机的缺失数据预测(可以评估使用< a href = " https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/observing_sys_science/OSSE/ " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / >) OSSE实验?有一点需要注意,如何< /李> <李>是天气预报的沟通self-quarantine影城的气象学家与气象学家,?< /李> < / ul > < p >这个考验是如何影响天气预报未来也许是个不错的跨学科研究。< / p > < p >完全回答你的问题,你可以看看< a href = " https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009MWR3097.1 " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >本杰明et al。(2006) < / >来评估不同观测系统的相对影响。当然之后有了一些变化,但这可以给一个粗略的想法我们可能看。< / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/19548/how-much-does-covid-19-affect-weather-forecasts/19562 # 19562 2 答案由Basileios COVID-19多少影响天气预报? Basileios //www.hoelymoley.com/users/13524 2020 - 04 - 05 - t07:53:18z 2020 - 04 - 05 - t07:53:18z < blockquote > < p >有项目跟踪和定期发布有关天气预报数据错误,帮助分析传入的数据之间的相关性和预测误差?< / p > < /引用> < p >世界气象组织跟踪预测性能的若干举措。看到例如< a href = " https://confluence.ecmwf.int//display/WLD " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / >。数据有点延迟,今天(2020年4月5日)是二月份的最新数据,在强劲的降低统计数据。< / p > < p >评估预测性能,需要找到一个预测领域策划和一定的指标。作为预测领域我想看看500 hPa位势高度,因为这是与大气流动,这本身在很大程度上决定了表面的天气。一个合适的指标是异常相关系数(ACC)基本上描述了如何预测领域与领域,因为它当时观察到后来的预测是有效的。< / p > < p >一个直观的方法来可视化这些结果,是看的预测提前期ACC的预测达到一定的阈值。在下面的例子中这个阈值为80%。所以人能读图表为“多远未来模型能够预测”,或简言之“可预见性”。

The figure below (source: ECMWF) shows monthly means for this 'Day where ACC=80% is reached' over the Northern Hemisphere. Note the strong seasonal cycle with predictability being much higher in winter compared to summer for the Northern Hemisphere.

ECMWF ACC The large seasonality, strong year-to-year variability and in addition overall increases of forecast performance over time (with the model itself being improved over time as well!) will likely make it difficult to attribute any changes of the performance over time to the lower AMDAR coverage.

However, there have been several studies analyzing the relevance of different input data (including AMDAR) to the forecast models. I found for example this presentation. Although this is no conclusive answer to your question, I hope I provided some useful resources.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/19548/how-much-does-covid-19-affect-weather-forecasts/19567 # 19567 2 答案由tmh COVID-19多少影响天气预报? tmh //www.hoelymoley.com/users/20240 2020 - 04 - 06 - t07:09:51z 2020 - 04 - 06 - t07:09:51z < p > ECMWF(欧洲中期天气预报中心)发表了一篇关于2020年3月24日主题:< / p > < blockquote > < p > 3月23日有一个减少65%(欧洲飞机)报告收到相比3月3日。在全球范围内减少42%左右。[…)< / p > < p > 2019年测试运行:一系列的预测<强>不使用飞机报告< / >强(但与所有其他数据)[…相比),使用的所有数据(即包括飞机报告)。[…)< / p > < p > <强> 12小时温度预测< /强>在北半球<强> 9%以上在巡航< / >强水平。[…)< / p > < p > "删除一半的飞机报告预计将给略低于一半移除所有飞机的影响,“ECMWF科学家布鲁斯Ingleby说。[…)< / p > < p >总之,飞机观测的数量显著下降在过去几周对欧洲和全球。 In the coming days and weeks, we expect a further decrease in numbers, which will have some impact on forecast quality in the short range, particularly around the polar jet stream level (10-12 km altitude).

Sensitivity studies at ECMWF have shown that removing all aircraft data degrades the short-range wind and temperature forecasts at those levels by up to 15%, with significant degradations at all forecast ranges up to seven days. There is a smaller, but still statistically significant, impact on near-surface fields, up to 3% on surface pressure.

Other types of observations are likely to be less affected by the COVID-19 disruption than aircraft reports, and there may be some additional radiosonde launches to try to mitigate the lack of aircraft data.

(emphasis mine)

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

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