他们仍然不能预测雨甚至提前一个星期?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 08 - 26 - t03:00:33z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/20062 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/20062 0 他们仍然不能预测雨甚至提前一个星期? Dantavious W。 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/20897 2020 - 08 - 14 - t04:36:54z 2020 - 08 - 14 - t15:22:24z < p >每十分钟,我让一个API调用SMHI与GPS坐标不到1公里的API从这里(不可能影响精度,但对于隐私)。SMHI is the Swedish weather forecast "ministry" or however one would translate it. They've been collecting weather stats since the mid-1700s, so you'd think they would be pretty skilled by now. I think they have some of the oldest weather data in the world, but don't quote me on that.

I don't really care about the temperatures, but I do look out for rain. In fact, I automatically clear and update my little "calendar" in my "control panel" with little icons for when this API claims that it will rain in the next 7 days, so that I constantly know how long it's left until the next time it rains. In theory.

I love rain.

Well, yesterday, my calendar was full of those sweet rain icons. I rubbed my hands and started looking forward to a nice week full of wonderful rain, yet now when I wake up, it has updated to be six full days left until the next time it rains again. And this is far from the first time. In fact, it happens all the time. They basically seem to have no idea whatsoever when it's going to rain, until just before it starts.

Are modern weather forecasts this inaccurate? Are they just particularly incompetent over at SMHI? I did integrate another, international API. I guess I should write some mechanism to compare their data with SMHI's. However, I suspect that the international API might well just use SMHI's data for coordinates within Sweden, and I'm not exactly eager to figure out how to make such a comparison.

Is rain forecasting really this inaccurate still? Isn't one week a pretty reasonable window to expect accurate weather data?

This makes me really wonder how accurate those "farmer's calendar" predictions were. It would interest me to see how right they have been compared to modern "scientific" weather forecasting.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/20062/-/20067 # 20067 2 由BarocliniCplusplus回答他们仍然不能预测雨甚至提前一个星期? BarocliniCplusplus //www.hoelymoley.com/users/704 2020 - 08 - 14 - t15:22:24z 2020 - 08 - 14 - t15:22:24z < p >我要暂停,说我不知道任何关于SMHI。因此我不能评论他们的能力。但我确信他们不欣赏被称为无能。如果你是如此热衷于雨,你考虑过看天气预报,并试图打败他们?< / p > < p >众所周知,< a href = " https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190415154722.htm " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >天气限制的可预测性是2周< / >。过去,气候学一样精确的现代预测事物的宏大计划。个别事件可能或多或少的可预测性。降水很难预测,由于各种原因包括缺乏高质量的水汽观测、粒子物理学的复杂性,与其他大气物理学和交互。< / p > < p >这实际上取决于降水的机制。不同的机制有不同数量的可预测性。例如,< a href = " https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > 5天预报飓风是由平均200英里(321公里)< / >。 Thunderstorms, especially individual cells, are hard to predict without probability. Extratropical cyclones are a bit easier predicted.

Farmers almanacs are notoriously inaccurate. Moreover, their "predictions" are fuzzy. You'll find better accuracy with actual forecasts.

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