最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 03 - 25 - t21:18:38z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/20110 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/20110 41 亚历克斯工艺 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/20947 2020 - 08 - 23 - t12:34:38z 2020 - 09 - 03 - t14:53:20z

< p >我看见这张图对全球温度,它可以追溯到2000年。< / p > < p >怎么可能回测量温度2000年<强>这样精度< /强>的喜欢~ 0.1 C吗?< / p > < p >图像从< a href = " https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ickvfq/oc_two_thousand_years_of_global_temperatures_in/ " rel = " noreferrer " > Reddit邮报》< / >我不知道原始数据的来源。< / p > < p > <强>工具是用来测量什么?< /强> < / p > <人力资源/ > < p > < a href = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/gilfy.png " rel = " noreferrer " > < img src = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/gilfy.png " alt = "在这里输入图像描述" / > < / > < / p >

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/20110/how -它可能- -测量-温度- 2000年前——————precision/20111 # 20111 55 大卫Hammen //www.hoelymoley.com/users/239 2020 - 08 - 23 - t14:43:48z 2020 - 08 - 23 - t14:43:48z

< blockquote > < p >怎么可能来测量温度2000年前?< / p > < /引用> < p >无比尔和泰德所使用的技江南登录网址app下载术(“比尔和泰德的优秀Adventure"),这显然是不可能直接测量温度从昨天,更不用说2000年前,甚至更长时间。什么是使用“proxies",今天可以测量的东西,作为替补,例如温度在过去。< / p > < p >代理的一个例子中的氧18格陵兰和南极的冰。水与两个氢原子和一个oxygen-16原子有一个约100°c,水的沸点oxygen-16原子取代的氧18原子有略高沸点。这意味着重氧水蒸发不那么容易但沉淀更容易比正常的水。< / p > < p >这反过来意味着分数18和氧16的水和气泡在古代格陵兰和南极的冰象征当时的气候,冰和那些气泡形成。尽管相隔半个世界,氧18的比率随时间oxygen-16格陵兰岛和南极洲之间是高度一致的。这些措施的一致性在相隔半个地球被普遍视为代表别的东西,别的是气候。< / p > < p >过去的气候还有许多其他代理。还有其他同位素作为代理。数量和种类的花粉在高山冰川和冰盖形成另一个代理。 The kinds of plants that do grow in some locales and how fast they do grow is highly temperature dependent. Like ice, buried muds in the oceans also show variations in various proxies. Climate scientists put these proxy measurements together to arrive at the temperatures from 2000 years ago, and even further into the past.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/20110/how -它可能- -测量-温度- 2000年前——————precision/20162 # 20162 3 弗兰克Mlinar //www.hoelymoley.com/users/21018 2020 - 09 - 03 - t14:53:20z 2020 - 09 - 03 - t14:53:20z

< p >你的图形显示温度异常。计算,平均温度在一个大的时间框架,说15°c,然后每个值的图形是平均水平的变化。异常漂亮,因为“inaccurate"可以使用测量仪器(代理)。绝对可以,但阅读阅读,阅读改变会更加准确,可以结合和其它不准确的工具。关于精度和不确定性。你的图形显示是一个期望值,可以作为“precise"你希望它是。这只是一个预期值。考虑两个骰子。 The expected value is 7, but the roll of the dice can be anywhere from 2 to 12. Of more importance is uncertainty. This is not shown in your graphic. We "expect" a certain value but we are unsure as to exactly what we will measure each time. And now we get into probabilities and distributions. Another key to low uncertainty data is a lot of measurements or a lot of proxies. Some examples of graphics with associated uncertainties are Marcott 2013, Loehle 2008, and Kaufman 2020. I believe Marcott uses 75 or so proxies. Of course present global temperature data use thousands of measurements, which drives down the uncertainty.

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