云反馈将如何影响气候变化作为全球变暖的结果?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 08 - t19:01:10z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/22 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/22 16 云反馈将如何影响气候变化作为全球变暖的结果? InquilineKea //www.hoelymoley.com/users/10 2014 - 04 - 15 - t20:33:48z 2014 - 04 - 19 - t06:59:30z < p >全球变暖会使对流层温度增加,这反过来会使云层高于他们否则会。< / p > < p >和更高的云(尤其是卷云)倾向于更长波辐射陷阱。低云层的(如海洋层云),反映了传入的短波辐射虽然不是捕获更多的长波辐射。< / p > < p >我的问题是这样的:全球变暖会增加这些反馈效应由于增加了云山庄?(也许减少海洋层云吗?)如果云地位让位给积云,将他们的净影响地球辐射的预算吗? < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/22/-/26 26 21 gerrit回答的云反馈将如何影响气候变化作为全球变暖的结果? gerrit //www.hoelymoley.com/users/6 2014 - 04 - 15 - t20:39:49z 2014 - 04 - 15 - t20:54:44z < p > <强>我们真的不知道。< /强> < / p > < p >气候模型认为反馈是深远的。有很重要的意义。不幸的是,他们对反馈的大小不一致。也不需要考虑签署。问题是,有反馈竞争。云的行为类似于温室气体,因为他们吸收并回送地面辐射。但他们也反映了太阳辐射。这些反馈竞争,它们都具有很大的不确定性。净效应是两者的区别,和两个量之间的差异有一个很大的不确定性,有一个非常大的不确定性。< / p > < p >这是一个重大的研究课题,它已经在全球气候模型不确定性的主要来源…… decades. A major paper on the topic, a bit old but still mostly true, is:

Quoting from this article, published in 2005:

Thus we have no clear theory that suggests the accumulated effects of cloud feedbacks are in any way a function of global-mean temperature or, as posed, ΔT.

And from IPCC AR4 WG1, published in 2007:

Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates.

The most state-of-the-art knowledge at the time of writing is summarised in IPCC AR5 WG1 chapter 7 (PDF), which stated in 2013:

Owing to the large magnitudes of the SWCRE [short wave cloud radiative effect] and LWCRE [long wave cloud radiative effect], clouds have the potential to cause significant climate feedback (Section 7.2.5). The sign of this feedback on climate change cannot be determined from the sign of CRE [cloud radiative effect] in the current climate, but depends instead on how climate-sensitive the properties are that govern the LWCRE and SWCRE.

Does that mean we can say nothing? Well, it's not quite so pessimistic. There are many attempts to answer this question. The figure below shows estimates for the regional distribution of the shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effect, again from AR5 WG1:

AR5 WG1 Fig 7.7
Figure 7.7 | Distribution of annual-mean top of the atmosphere (a) shortwave, (b) longwave, (c) net cloud radiative effects averaged over the period 2001–2011 from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Ed2.6r data set (Loeb et al., 2009) and (d) precipitation rate (1981–2000 average from the GPCP version 2.2 data set; Adler et al., 2003). Figure reference: Boucher, O., D. Randall, P. Artaxo, C. Bretherton, G. Feingold, P. Forster, V.-M. Kerminen, Y. Kondo, H. Liao, U. Lohmann, P. Rasch, S.K. Satheesh, S. Sherwood, B. Stevens and X.Y. Zhang, 2013: Clouds and Aerosols. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

This suggests the effect is negative, but the debate goes on. To be continued!
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