我最近很好奇地了解到古新世-始新世热极大值从约翰·贝兹的这个博客。对于那些还没见过的人来说,这是一个标记为“PETM"在这张(来自维基百科)过去6500万年全球温度的图表中:
这立即让我震惊,这一事件在某种程度上与现代气候变化相似——维基百科文章中也提到了这一观察结果。显然,推测古新世-始新世热极值可能是由火山爆发引起的。< / p >
(In asking the following question, I am not saying that I believe this to be the case (indeed, I find it highly implausible). I ask simply out of scientific curiosity.)
Is there any way we could tell whether the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum was caused by an ancient race of intelligent life forms, who caused a period of global warming in similar fashion to what humans are doing currently, and subsequently went extinct?
The answer I expect is along the lines of "No, we can't exclude that for sure. But we would expect to see some fossil records from such a civilization, which we don't." But I would be happy to be surprised in either direction by someone more knowledgeable. Some food for thought:
tl;dr:
不,我们不能肯定排除它。但我们希望看到一些来自这样一个文明的化石记录,但我们没有。
是的,差不多就是这个。< / p >
To elaborate, I would refer to your statement that:
I have heard it said that there are only two things humans have accomplished which will leave a permanent mark on the geological record. The first is climate change. The second is leaded gasoline, which will leave an identifiable stratum around the globe.
This is absolutely incorrect. There are so many signatures that our civilisation is leaving at the moment in the geological record, permanently. Some examples:
The list goes on and on. Trust me, if there was a civilisation large enough and advanced enough to destroy itself, we would see that very well in the geological record.
Now we have maps of the lunar surface with a resolution of about 100 metres. This would by far not be enough to find the Apollo landers by chance, but our current civilisation is not far away from leaving larger structures on the moon, so it seems to me there is a big probability that previous industrial civilisations would've left something that sticks out like a sore thumb on the lunar maps that we already have.
There are plans to build the Lunar Gateway Station, a space station in orbit around the moon, by the end of this decade. While that's still not large enough to be found on current maps, you can easily expect a larger station only a few decades away. A station the size of the ISS from 55 million years ago would either still be orbiting the moon or (ore likely) have crashed into it by now, but in either case we should've found the debris. We will probably also build structures on the moon itself in just a few decades, whether research stations on the scale of the Antarctic stations or perhaps some exploratory mining for trace metals (whether that's ever economically viable is a different matter).
The point is that Earth's surface has changed so much that likely only very large structures (like megacities) can still be found, but may be deformed so much that we don't recognise them, while on the Moon even comparatively small structures of just a few hundred metres (or much less in some places) would still be very obvious.
一个物种能在不开采碳氢化合物的情况下显著改变气候吗?或者他们能在不留下痕迹的大技术足迹(道路、电网、核电等)的情况下,以所需的规模开采碳氢化合物吗?< /强> < / p > < p >我会认为你会寻找类似的一种食肉文明,不需要援助,亨特(没有武器像燧石需要增加税后热量从狩猎),几乎没有兴趣猎物增加农业/喂它们(没有化肥/农业增加饲料的猎物,没有脂肪的牛群驱赶其他野生动物),和不需要住房/商品添加保护/舒适——需要re-distributed资源。当然,一旦你假设一个这样的文明——他们需要这种力量做什么?交配展示/文化原因只能消耗这么多汽油。而且,他们必须看到不良影响正在发生,并且有理由不遏制他们的过度行为。
为了避免广泛的道路网络,也许他们使用飞艇/热气球?我认为这应该归咎于一种文化或生物趋势(以前的鸟类真的很喜欢在空中?),因为道路似乎更容易开发。维持原始土地以供猎物生长的文化必要性?(但我认为这会与燃烧大量的碳相冲突)
<强>碳:强>
你不需要一个长距离的电网来燃烧碳。所以你可能没有电线上的证据。< / p >
A reason they might've avoided/never developed nuclear power, is that they were burning carbon for power instead. We got into atom-smashing for war and scientific curiosity.
How much carbon was locked up in the geological cycle at that point?
What evidence would a pumped-out oil reservoir look like after 65mya? How big were coal-beds at that point?
Carbonist manifesto says we've evolved because the geological storage of carbon has gotten out of control (not being cycled thru biosphere), I'm assuming it wasn't such an issue back then.
If enough carbon was available in the biosphere, you don't need to mine it. If you're not mining, you don't need to dig out ore-bodies for metal to make tools/engines to mine.
We had extensive surface deposits of high quality ore (Michigan), how new/old are those?
Could you have burnt off massive amounts of flora, and/or put lots of methane in the air? Maybe it was a massive spike in breeding up cow-equivalents (methane producing, and eating all the flora), but over a very small time-span, and none of them got preserved in the fossil record? We have Lazarus taxa and ghost lineages, and (currently) disappearing breeds of farm animals. Fossil record is definitely spotty.
Also I specifically want to take issue with some of @Gimelist's answer:
If a civilization only developed near seashores or deltas - current humans might not find anything, as most of the former seashore is now under-water. (Has anyone found a fishing village / midden-heap in Doggerland? - AFAIK; no. We've found a couple of flints, a skull fragment, an antler point). We've done very little exploration in these spaces.
That said, there are some nice things in the suggestions - which a traceless (near-traceless?) civilization would have to have avoided.
Another thing we'd find with nuclear bombs/power:
Radionuclides are also deposited in bones, and can be used to date disasters / bodies born after such incidents (eg: FNPP 2011). Famous study found: 'that the teeth of children born in St. Louis in 1963 had 50 times the levels of strontium 90 as those of children born in 1950'.
I'm interested in whether a thorium-powered civilization would leave traces - it's not able to be weaponized, and can get all nuclear waste to a 300 year decay window. Of course if you have thorium, why would you burn hydrocarbons?
Just the one thing, fossil fuel usage, makes this so. Fossil fuels have not been replaced since their making over-to-around 450-400 million years ago. Yet when mankind began using them, even the "low-hanging fruit" was there, ready for the plucking. If a society in your time period had passed through a fossil fuel using stage, and they WOULD have, the low-hanging fruit would have been used, along with much, much more.
Yes, tectonic activity could have moved some not-then-low-hanging fruit to be so, but not on the scale we observed when plucking it ourselves. Nor would it replace the used materials.
No society would have gone from a few fireplaces straight to nuclear plants powering a world, nor geothermal ones or wind powered ones. And in further (logical) proof of that, how would those three sources have generated the warming on the required scale without massive use on a scale certainly greater than ours (certainly so if not also consuming fossil fuels)? Greater than ours because while ANY energy converted from storage to use then becomes part of the planet's heat load, even without greenhouse effects, though a rising temperature from electricity used from geothermal plants, say, has the effect of... rising temperature due to anything, though without the positive feedback element of adding greenhouse gases.
In fact, the use of non-replacing fossil fuels is the reason we need to jump up a level and pretty fast. Without doing so, we will reach a point at which no more are available (doesn't matter if that is the "20 years from now" I've heard since I was 10 for oil supplies, or 2600 AD I keep seeing for natural gas, or 3846 AD: the day cometh if their use is not replaced).
When that happens, a very harsh situation will develop, akin to hunter-gathers feasting on a positive feedback loop of grain and seeing their populations grow, then the grain is gone, largely, for a generation or six, and their populations fall drastically. Aided probably by fighting along the way, but also just by fewer children being supportable.
As we fall from modernity, our chance as a species will then be lost forever. Forever. Because probably no one will ever make the jump from burning wood and replacing it with wind power then developing nuclear technology (or even geothermal). So we won't "rise" again, but rather just fall away, though probably getting our 5-15 million more years before the species dies out.
If there had been such a civilization as posited in the question, we'd've run up against a wall (in Europe) hundreds of years ago when we began to actually see deforestation with no little story for ourselves that it was to increase farmland.
So WE wouldn't exist as we clearly actually do. Ergo, there was NO such civilization then, or 10,000 years BC, or 20,000 years BC, or whatever quack garbage is spewed forth by people on the fringe. When Edgar Cayce is your main scientist, you have problems.
So no, such a civilization did not exist. They did not fall from grace, nor did they reach to the stars and meet Admiral Janeway. If they had, we would not be here, and we are.
It is also a sobering thing to think about instead of worrying about our beachfront homes in Colorado and South Dakota being overrun by water someday. Decent chance the lack of alien contact (via radio, not starships) could be due to this degeneration occurring on other planets as well, if they even had a suitably long period of time between trees, bushes, plants, ferns, etc. and the evolution of bacteria that could break down their fibers. Planets with user a species that (like us) did not seem on a path to solving the energy source jump (fusion, really) before they started down the energy/civilization slope and reached a point at which they could never have another chance. Planets that (hopefully, unlike us!) that did not see the user species solve, or even seriously consider the problem itself, and tanked, and so never reached (via radio, not starships... it will NEVER be starships... we are in this system and alone, forever: well, as long as we last) any other star's planetary system's people. No more paradox, eh?
No, it could not have given the evidence of us and the ease with which incredible amounts of oil, coal, and gas were easy to obtain in the not so long ago past. Some amount, even moderate amounts could have been tectonic forces at work, but even today, some of all of them are still very easy to obtain. So no.