一切都影响着地球上的一切吗?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 04 - 26 - t16:41:16z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/2625 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/2625 3 一切都影响着地球上的一切吗? user837 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/837 2014 - 10 - 13 - t21:48:01z 2014 - 11 - 19 - t15:14:50z < p >如果一个蝴蝶可以改变未来,然后不能每一行动保持未来的混乱?根据蝴蝶效应问题,这一定是这样,不是吗?如果这是一个准确的描述现实世界,如果很多事情行动不断在其他事情,有没有一种方法来预测或行动吗?如果是这样,我们为什么要担心呢?< / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/2625/-/2626 # 2626 5 user837回答的是地球上一切影响一切吗? user837 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/837 2014 - 10 - 13 - t21:56:18z 2014 - 10 - 13 - t21:56:18z < p >从经验作为一个跨大陆卡车业主运营商的影响昆虫的翅膀在地上跳动是最小化甚至中和卡车的质量当它击中散热器。逻辑思维和近距离观察揭示这种最小化效应。当我们把285000000的蜜蜂一样,他们的联合飞行能力太最小,以抵消35000磅的质量在60英里加速开放的路上。因此进行推理,添加的一个bug张贴到我们的散热器的重量不改变车辆的重量和速度。如果证实了这个逻辑,那么击败的一套可爱的蝴蝶翅膀,不会交易断路器。< / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/2625/-/2627 # 2627 9 答案在410年离开了地球上一切影响一切吗? 410年不见了 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/100 2014 - 10 - 14 - t12:14:59z 2014 - 10 - 14 - t12:14:59z < p >你知道天气将在四个小时的时间吗?你可以做一个非常自信的猜测。明天这个时候怎么样?你可以做一个相当自信的猜测。这一次,在十四天到底是什么?现在,你更自信。< / p >

That's because weather is a chaotic system, and it's very sensitive to boundary conditions. In such a system, very small disturbances can make very big changes, far enough out.

Now, for Wisconsin (as that's what the OP's profile gives as their location), let's think about the external air temperature at 05.00 on 1 February 2017, and at 14.00 on 1 July 2017. Which do you think will be higher? Will it be a difference of a few Kelvin, or more than ten Kelvin (18°F) difference? How confident are you in your answer? You're probably very very confident that the July temperature will be higher, by more than ten Kelvin. The climate is still reasonably predictable months or years ahead, even though it gets very hard to predict the weather reliably more than ten days ahead. Climate is a long-term system, and is not sensitive to boundary conditions in the same way that weather is.

If you roll a fair six-sided dice once, you can't be very confident about whether a one will come up, however much you know about the air movements in the room when you throw the dice (you can be reasonably sure that the probability is 1/6, however much you know about the air). However, if you roll that dice 6000 times, you can be reasonably confident that one will come up a thousand times, give or take a hundred times, and you don't need to know anything about the air movements in the room.

That's the difference between weather and climate; even though weather is just a manifestation of climate, it's just a sample from the climate distribution.

We've built the global economy, patterns of habitation and movement, food supplies, energy systems, around the climate that we've had for the last few hundred years. And that should be ok, because climate, sea levels and sea pH levels normally take between thousands and millions of years to change radically. But our releases of greenhouse gases are now causing big changes to happen within years to decades: and it will be enormously expensive, disruptive, and cause huge suffering to billions of people, to reorient the global economy, patterns of habitation and movement, food supplies, and energy systems, to newer, unknown, unfamiliar climates, coupled with rising sea levels and ocean acidification.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/2625/-/2651 # 2651 6 答案由大卫Hammen是地球上一切影响一切吗? 大卫Hammen //www.hoelymoley.com/users/239 2014 - 10 - 18 - t22:55:55z 2014 - 10 - 18 - t22:55:55z < p >媒体喜欢蝴蝶效应,但他们也喜欢mis-portray这意味着什么。当洛伦兹给他说< a href = " http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf " >“可预测性:在巴西一只蝴蝶翅膀的拍打在德克萨斯州引发一场龙卷风?”< / >,让媒体关注的新兴领域,混沌理论。媒体关注他演讲的标题。听起来太酷了!他们不阅读论文的身体去看个究竟。< / p > < p >标题被选为引发思想,不混乱。洛伦兹并不意味着一切都是相互关联的。蝴蝶效应仅仅意味着混沌系统对初始条件非常敏感。< / p > < p >洛伦兹开始了他与< / p > < blockquote > < p >…真正利益我们的问题是他们是否能做这方面,例如,两个特殊的天气情况不同,只要一个蝴蝶的直接影响通常会在足够的时间演变成两种情况不同了龙卷风的存在。更多的技术语言,大气不稳定的行为对小振幅扰动?< / p >

He ends it with

We must therefore leave our original question unanswered for a few more years, even while affirming our faith in the instability of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, today’s errors in weather forecasting cannot be blamed entirely nor even primarily upon the finer structure of weather patterns. They arise mainly from our failure to observe even the coarser structure with near completeness, our somewhat incomplete knowledge of the governing physical principles, and the inevitable approximations which must be introduced in formulating these principles as procedures which the human mind or the computer can carry out.

That extreme sensitivity to initial conditions means that in theory, a scenario in which a butterfly in Brazil does or does not flag its wings just so are enough to create slightly different conditions that eventually result in tornado hitting Texas. Even if this is the case (and Lorenz did leave that as an open question in hist talk), it's not quite fair to say that the butterfly caused the tornado. The Lyapunov time for the disturbances created by a flap of a butterfly wing is very short. Saying that some event caused some later event else when the two events are separated by hundreds of Lyapunov times just doesn't make sense.

What this means is that forty plus years after Lorenz's talk, weather forecasters still can't make an accurate two week forecast, and they may well not ever be able to do so. They can make now a fairly accurate five or seven day forecast, and that was something that was beyond the skills of meteorologists forty years ago.

Caveat: Don't believe the forecast by your local TV station. They are notoriously inaccurate. If the US National Weather Service says there's a 100% chance of rain tomorrow, it's best to cancel your barbecue. If your local TV station weatherman says the same, there's a good chance tomorrow will be sunny.

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