与历史天气预报预测学校关闭数据?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 10 - t02:44:02z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/4480 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/4480 9 与历史天气预报预测学校关闭数据? BKay //www.hoelymoley.com/users/2631 2015 - 03 - 04 - t13:52:22z 2015 - 03 - 06 - t23:23:01z < p >我感兴趣的预测时,当地的学校将关闭由于雪和其他冬天的天气。我有一个列表关闭学校的日期和粗略的标准用来确定关闭学校,包括温度、风、降水、和他们的相互作用。使用统计技术(古典、贝叶斯机器学习),我想同时使用实际的天气(t - 1)的前一天和当天预测天气预测县(t)的决定。< / p > < p >我想用天气预测t和不实际的,因为这是决定者已知的信息当他们必须做出决定。实际,为t - 1意识到天气,我打算使用< a href = " http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/webservices/v2 # gettingStarted”rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / > NOAA API。但是我亏本在哪里发现天气预报数据。虽然我能做@MarkRovetta表明什么问题< a href = " //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/3160/statistical-weather-prediction " >统计天气预报< / >,我的预测模型,使用一个数据库比我糟糕的预测模型不会与国家气象局预测可用国家官员。在最好的情况下,将像噪音,减少我的预测的质量。我的主要问题是因此来源可供当地天气预测在不同的落后意识到天气吗?< / p > < p >此外,有表的预测质量的预测在不同的时间范围吗? If, for example, the daily weather was predicted with 99% accuracy by 4 am that day, maybe there isn't an important difference between the predictions and the realized values.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/4480/-/4482 # 4482 6 凯西回答的预测和历史天气预报数据关闭学校吗? 凯西 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/64 2015 - 03 - 04 - t19:34:39z 2015 - 03 - 04 - t19:34:39z < p >我不知道任何你想要的数据集,是相当(存档点预估第二天)。消化的数据较少。< / p >
  • NOAA NCDC archived messages

    This website has archives of all messages that NOAA transmits. The vast majority are unrelated to your needs, but if you look through the message types you might find something worthwile.

  • NCDC NOMADS

    This site has archived GFS model grids. This model is run 4 times per day and each run will have an analysis grid (current weather) and forecasts every 6 hours through the first few days of forecast time.

Most other archived data I could find are either observations or model reanalysis datasets, which won't work for your needs (except to better define the initial day t). With the above datasets you could potentially put together the current weather at a specific place at 4 different times on day (t) and from each time have forecasts data for the next day, e.g.:

  • Observations / model analysis 12Z day t: 24 hour forecast for 12Z day t+1
  • Observations / model analysis 18Z day t: 18 hour forecast for 12Z, 24 hour forecast for 18Z day t+1
  • Observations / model analysis 00Z day t: 12 hour forecast for 12Z, 18 hour for 18Z and 24 hour for 00Z day t+1

From these you could then do your statistical analysis overall and explore how it may change as the day progresses and the model forecasts are shorter term.

If wading through this data is not something you want to deal with, an alternative is to start archiving forecast data yourself going forward and building up a database over time.

Some caveats...

The NOMADS GFS data is pure model data, no forecaster input. This is not what decision makers will be using directly. This data will be made more consumable and be tweaked by forecasters before dissemination to the public. If the NOAA message archive contains suitable forecasts data, that data will have likely been filtered through a forecaster and close to what would be displayed on the NWS website as a forecast.

School closings are chaotic. The same weather will not yeild the same closures. Sometimes schools will stay open when faced with a worse forecast than a time they recently closed. The criteria for closing may be a moving target as usable "snow days" are used up. School closing thresholds will vary regionally (Florida schools would be closed Dec - March if subjected to a Michigan winter). You may come up with a good forecast for when a school should close, but don't be surprised if it doesn't correlate well with actual closings.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/4480/-/4487 # 4487 4 答案由克里斯·穆勒和历史天气预报数据预测学校停课吗? 克里斯•穆勒 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/53 2015 - 03 - 06 - t14:49:30z 2015 - 03 - 06 - t14:49:30z < p > < a href = " https://weatherspark.com/ " rel =“nofollow”> Weatherspark.com < / >,我最喜欢的天气网站,允许用户将对三个来源:美国国家海洋和大气管理局,满足。没有,worldweatheronline。第二个选项都为整个世界提供预测,一个API。< / p > < p >你可以找到信息。没有API < a href = " http://api.met。没有/ weatherapi /文档”rel = " nofollow”> < / >和信息WWO API < a href = " http://www.worldweatheronline.com/api/ " rel =“nofollow”> < / >。特别是,WWO API页面说:< / p > < blockquote > < p >我们当地天气API提供了当前的天气情况和每小时天气预报15天在全球的位置。当地天气API还提供每月的气候平均数据交付总天气在世界各地。< / p >

I have never tried using either service, so I can't promise that they will have exactly what you need, but hopefully this helps.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/4480/-/4489 # 4489 6 答案为预测DopplerShift关闭学校历史天气预报数据吗? DopplerShift //www.hoelymoley.com/users/1245 2015 - 03 - 06 - t23:23:01z 2015 - 03 - 06 - t23:23:01z < p >国家数字预测数据库(NDFD)是由美国国家气象资料中心存档:< a href = " http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/ndfd/ " rel = " noreferrer " > http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/ndfd/ < / > < / p > < p > NDFD包含网格预测在美国由NWS预测。你也可以NDFD输出实时从各种各样的来源,包括NWS本身:< a href = " http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/technical.htm " rel = " noreferrer " > http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/technical.htm < / > < / p >
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