近期全球变暖的影响是什么?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 09 - t01:08:05z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/5087 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/5087 11 近期全球变暖的影响是什么? nbubis //www.hoelymoley.com/users/614 2015 - 06 - 29 t13:21:04z 2015 - 07 - 02 - t10:05:53z < p >的许多全球变暖的预测模型是过时的~ 100年或更长时间的礼物。我想知道如果任何模型或数据提供更直接的预测未来,说10 - 20美元年美元从今天开始。< / p >

Specifically, I'd like to hear about predictions that directly influence humans, such as weather, flooding, disease, etc.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/5087/-/5097 # 5097 2 由半日西蒙回答近期全球变暖的影响是什么? 半日西蒙 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/39 2015 - 07 - 01 - t08:35:46z 2015 - 07 - 02 - t10:03:52z < p >气候预测只有有效的统计上,长时间——通常> 30年。短时间,任何影响气候变化的是迷失在随机(循环)的天气变化。< / p >

This means that climate predictions are never of the form "in the year 2045 we will see x happening" - specific events like that are weather. What can be predicted is "The period from 2050-2080 is likely to be different to the period from 2020-2050 in the following ways...", looking at differences in statistical measures (such as averages) over long periods.

So you will never see climate science tell you what will happen in specific near-future years. However, it may be possible to predict what general characteristics are likely to be different in the next 10-20 years compared to recent history. The shorter the time period for which the prediction is given, the less certainty there will be in the effects. This doesn't quite answer your question, but hopefully helps to put other answers into context.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/5087/-/5098 # 5098 7 回答Jareth霍尔特的近期全球变暖的影响是什么? Jareth霍尔特 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/1342 2015 - 07 - 02 - t00:11:51z 2015 - 07 - 02 - t10:05:53z < p > < a href = " https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf " rel =“nofollow”> IPCC AR5第11章< / >覆盖短期气候变化。我推荐阅读执行概要(只有6页)。我总结总结近期的气候变化就像长期的气候变化,但按比例缩小和不确定性。表面空气温度和海洋上层温度可能会增加,有一个关联的增加大气中的水蒸气。降水是可能会增加,它已经很高,可能减少已经很低。夏季北极海冰范围可能会减少。但我想强调的。< / p >

The end of the executive summary talks about near-term air quality, and the beginning talks about predictability. Specifically, it mentions that emissions of chemicals that produce aerosols -- atmospheric particles that interact with solar radiation -- have a wide range of uncertainty, even in the near term. Unlike CO2, aerosols can induce a significant climate response (or at least a change in radiation) over the span of weeks and months. A change in energy use or technology, like India and China adopting sulfur control policies, can thus affect climate quickly and dramatically. This is a source of a lot of the uncertainty in near-term projections; over the long-term, CO2 dominates.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/5087/-/5100 # 5100 4 答案由马克Rovetta近期全球变暖的影响是什么? 马克Rovetta //www.hoelymoley.com/users/178 2015 - 07 - 02 - t05:43:50z 2015 - 07 - 02 - t05:43:50z < p > < em >“我想知道如果任何模型或数据提供更直接的预测未来,说从今天10 - 20年。”< / em > < / p > < p > < em >”具体来说,我想听到预测,直接影响人类,如天气、洪水、疾病,等等。”< / em > < / p > < p >基本上,我把你的问题是:“今天人们受到气候变化的影响如何?”The expectation being that if present trends continue, the effects may intensify in the near-future (10-20 years.)

I suggest you consider how people today are affected by extreme weather, because climate change may manifest today primarily by leading to more intense and frequent extreme weather events.

This recent paper in Nature Climate Change, Attribution of climate extreme events (2015) proposes that 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, may have been influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

In the popular article "Study sees a ‘new normal’ for how climate change is affecting weather extremes", an author summarizes some of the major conclusion of that paper.

For example, although a moderate storm "Sandy" may have occurred regardless of the effects of global warming, computer modeling suggests it is likely that global warming augmented this storm up to a level great enough to flood the New York subway.

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