什么是合理的预测海平面在2100年?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 09 - t01:24:27z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/5316 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/5316 15 什么是合理的预测海平面在2100年? 布赛尔格兰特 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/3288 2015 - 08 - 05 - t01:10:46z 2021 - 06 - 21 - t06:45:25z < p > 2013年政府间气候变化专门委员会报告说,自然科学基础0.4米——0.6米。现在有些过时和< a href = " http://www.atmos -化学-物理- discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd - 15 - 20059 - 2015. - html”rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > http://www.atmos -化学-物理- discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd - 15 - 20059 - 2015. - html < / >似乎有争议。它是安全的地方政府计划的基础上0.4 - 0.6米,或有另一个价值,会更好吗?< / p > < p >他们的抽象总结如下供参考。< / p > < blockquote > < p >有证据的冰融化,海平面上升到+ 5 - 9米,和极端风暴前间冰期是小于1°C比今天暖和。人造气候迫使比穿越营力更强大和更快速,但大部分可以学到通过结合见解从古气候,气候建模和持续的观察。我们认为冰原接触海洋容易受到非线性解体海洋变暖,我们假定,冰盖质量损失可以用一个倍增时间近似至少几米的海平面上升。翻倍的10、20或40年收益率50几米的海平面上升,100年或200年。古气候数据表明地下海洋变暖导致冰盖冰架融化,放电。暴露我们的气候模型放大反馈在南大洋,缓慢的南极底层水的形成,提高海洋温度冰架附近接地线,而冷却表面的海洋和海冰覆盖和水柱稳定增加。海洋表面冷却,在北大西洋和南大洋,对流层水平温度梯度增加,艾迪动能和斜压性,开车更强大的风暴。 We focus attention on the Southern Ocean's role in affecting atmospheric CO2 amount, which in turn is a tight control knob on global climate. The millennial (500–2000 year) time scale of deep ocean ventilation affects the time scale for natural CO2 change, thus the time scale for paleo global climate, ice sheet and sea level changes. This millennial carbon cycle time scale should not be misinterpreted as the ice sheet time scale for response to a rapid human-made climate forcing. Recent ice sheet melt rates have a doubling time near the lower end of the 10–40 year range. We conclude that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous. Earth's energy imbalance, which must be eliminated to stabilize climate, provides a crucial metric.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/5316/what-is-a-reasonable-forecast-of-sea-level-in-2100/5317 # 5317 11 答案由f。索普是一个合理的预测海平面在2100年? f.thorpe //www.hoelymoley.com/users/543 2015 - 08 - 05 - t03:01:29z 2015 - 08 - 14 - t00:24:34z < p >这是位置的一个重要方面。全球海平面上升将不会完全均匀和潮汐/风暴将导致很多沿海变化的术语在不同的地区。地方政府不一定要规划一个全球平均海平面上升,而是建立一个地区沿海的理解影响他们可能会经验。例如,看到加州最近的加利福尼亚海岸委员会海平面上升政策导向:< a href = " http://documents.coastal.ca.gov/assets/slr/guidance/July2015_Full_RecFinal.pdf " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > http://documents.coastal.ca.gov/assets/slr/guidance/July2015_Full_RecFinal.pdf < / >表示< / p > < blockquote > < p >海平面在旧金山潮汐计上升8英寸(20厘米)在过去的一个世纪里,和国家研究委员会(NRC)预计,到2100年,加州的海平面可能上升4 - 56(10 - 143厘米)地区北部的门多西诺角和17 - 66(42至167厘米)地区南部的门多西诺角(2012年NRC)。而加州海岸经常经历侵蚀、洪水、风暴和重大事件,海平面上升将加剧这些自然力量,导致重大的社会、环境和经济的影响。< / p > < /引用>

The estimate of 0.6 meters has increased as recent research shows Greenland's melt rate is a bit faster than previously estimated and ocean warming, which causes expansion, is also happening more rapidly.

Below is some useful information from the 2014 US National Climate Assessment ( http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/sea-level-rise ).

Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100.

Projecting future rates of sea level rise is challenging. Even the most sophisticated climate models, which explicitly represent Earth’s physical processes, cannot simulate rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics, and thus are likely to underestimate future sea level rise. In recent years, “semi-empirical” methods have been developed to project future rates of sea level rise based on a simple statistical relationship between past rates of globally averaged temperature change and sea level rise. These models suggest a range of additional sea level rise from about 2 feet to as much as 6 feet by 2100, depending on emissions scenario.

Recent projections show that for even the lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters and the melting of small mountain glaciers will result in 11 inches of sea level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. This suggests that about 1 foot of global sea level rise by 2100 is probably a realistic low end. On the high end, recent work suggests that 4 feet is plausible.,,,, In the context of risk-based analysis, some decision makers may wish to use a wider range of scenarios, from 8 inches to 6.6 feet by 2100., In particular, the high end of these scenarios may be useful for decision makers with a low tolerance for risk

In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many of these regions. Sea level rise will not stop in 2100 because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface. Ocean waters will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many centuries at rates equal to or higher than that of the current century

The discussion paper, which is still undergoing peer-review at the time of this post, brings into question the semi-empirical methods used to calculate the rate of sea-level rise on the decade-scale. As an alternative, they use paleo-climate data and doubling times to make their own approximation, which predicts faster sea level rise. Let us be clear, though, the amount of possible net sea level rise over the next few hundred years or so is not really in question. The timing of how fast the sea will rise over the coming century is what is less certain. So, a coastal community doing long term planning could consider sea-level rise even further in the future. Most of Greenland could melt over the next few hundred years, which would contribute nearly 6 meters of sea level rise. If we are strictly talking about the year 2100, though, that is a difficult forecast to make. For planning purposes, it would be wise to assume at least 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100, with definite continued increases.

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