有可能预测未来100年的海洋盐度吗?-地江南体育网页版球科学堆栈交换江南电子竞技平台 最近30个来自www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 04 - 07 - t09:43:29z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/551 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/551 13 有可能预测未来100年的海洋盐度吗? 猎鹿人 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/269 2014 - 04 - 25 - t05:40:15z 2017 - 11 - 30 - t16:54:35z 古盐度由孔隙流体的氯度测量(Adkins 2002)。

当前数据由 CORA数据集。

除了回答主要问题外，我还想知道一些问题:

  • 如何预测海洋盐度?

  • 预测误差与预测层位之间的关系是什么?

  • 是否有现有的全球盐度预报?

  • 预测未来100年盐度的不确定性来源是什么?李< / p > < / > < / ul >

 //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/551/is-it-possible-to-forecast-ocean-salinity-100-years-into-the-future/2594#2594 5 有可能预测未来100年的海洋盐度吗? arkaia //www.hoelymoley.com/users/111 2014 - 10 - 08 - t18:01:58z 2017 - 11 - 30 - t16:53:34z 主要问题的答案是，我们有能力预测未来100年的盐度。更相关的问题可能是我们目前预测盐度的能力如何。首先，让我们看看目前我们所知道的盐度是如何变化的。全球盐度是地表淡水通量(蒸发减去降水)、陆地径流以及海洋混合和平流过程之间平衡的结果。盐度的变化与全球水循环的变化有内在联系，预计是气候变化的结果(Held and Soden, 2006)。普遍的变化已被确定为亚热带表面地区变得更咸，高纬度地区变得更新鲜(< A href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JC000964" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Antonov et al.， 2002;Boyer et al.， 2005)。Durack and Wijffels (2010)发现在以蒸发为主的地区盐度增加，而在以降水为主的地区发生清新。他们认为，这种变化是全球水循环加剧的结果。这些结果是IPCC 2013年报告 (TFE.1中结论的基础 Figure 1).

IPCC TFE.1, Figure 1 - Changes in sea surface salinity are related to the atmospheric patterns of evaporation minus precipitation (E – P) and trends in total precipitable water

The global climate models that are used to evaluate future climate scenarios are calibrated to reproduce the past ocean and atmospheric conditions, which includes trying to match the described salinity trend. They likely constitute the best source of future global salinity estimates. Their ocean salinity forecast is based on the estimation of the global hydrological cycle evolution, especially evaporation, precipitation, river discharge and ocean mixing.

With regard to the quality of the salinity estimates, there is probably a large uncertainty associated with those fields. There is going to be substantial improvement in the quality of the salinity forecast because of the recent availability of better global salinity products. The remote data obtained from satellites (SMOS and Aquarius) have been providing a much better global view of salinity changes. Also, the ARGO profilers are expanding our understanding of the ocean interior.

In terms of evaluating uncertainty, I like the approach of Meier et al., 2006 looking at multi-model ensemble estimates. They combined down-scaled regional models with global simulations under several scenarios and provided several metrics for salinity uncertainties. The relationship between forecast errors and forecast horizons is quite complex and in fact represents an entire field of study. There is a lot of information in the IPCC 2013 report dealing with prediction quality, ensemble generation and size, and forecast quality assessment (for instance Chapter 11).

salinity trend Source: Aretxabaleta et al. (2017)

Using a little bit of self-promotion, I can also say that estimating what the current salinity trend from observations is a tough problem. In this recently published article, we show that the changes in trend are spatially complex and changing in time. We argue that, as mentioned before, the changes in salinity field give a good representation of the long-term changes in the global hydrological cycle.
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