全球气温的地区本地化趋势表明污染城市发展?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 09 - t01:55:03z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/6584 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/6584 6 全球气温的地区本地化趋势表明污染城市发展? matt_black //www.hoelymoley.com/users/3333 2015 - 09 - 20 - t20:49:15z 2015 - 09 - 22 - t09:23:38z < p >背后的原始数据的各种数据报告世界平均气温现在可用。所以有可能寻找奇怪的每日或每月温度数据中的模式。The reported "average temperature of the world" is, ultimately, derived from these datasets by various corrections, normalisations and regional aggregations.

Recently I came across a claim that the temperature anomalies are remarkably concentrated geographically. The hypothesis suggested, tentatively, by the author (Clive Best, blog on topic here) suggested that this might reflect contamination of the raw data by rapid urbanisation. NB his argument is very different from the idea that US data is corrupted by the urban heat island effect which is addressed here: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/10341/has-the-urban-heat-island-effect-on-the-us-temperature-record-been-underestimate)

He reports (my emphasis):

The anomalies from ~4000 stations all over the globe are then combined to give one global anomaly, yielding the familiar graph we know and love which shows ~0.6 deg.C rise since 1850. Looking in more detail however we discover that some parts of the world are not warming at all and some are even cooling.

His argument develops:

It immediately becomes obvious that the bulk of observed warming is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere : Eastern Europe, Russia, central Asia, India, China, Japan, Middle East, North Africa. These are all areas of rapid population increase, development and industrialisation. There is essentially no warming at all in the Southern Hemisphere. Bolivia, Peru, Paraguay and Argentina all appear to be cooling. Even Australia and Zealand are static or cooling. The US is evenly divided and the UK shows essentially no signal at all.

...Could much of the observed temperature rise over the last 6 decades be simply due to increasing urbanisation and development since ~1960 ?

Climate models don't produce even warming across the world so there could be explanations perfectly consistent with the observations of major regional differences. So my question is: does the large variation in regional temperature anomalies have a straightforward explanation in mainstream warming theory or is it a sign that some regional records are contaminated by urban development?

NB Best used the data from HADCRUT3 released by the UK Met Office, but it is also obvious in the NOAA GSOD dataset which is conveniently available to 2010 in Google's BigQuery as a sample dataset (you can also download it if you have the capacity process it).

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/6584/-/6585 # 6585 5 Dikran回答的有袋类动物对全球温度的区域本地化趋势表明污染城市发展? Dikran袋 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/624 2015 - 09 - 22 - t07:20:19z 2015 - 09 - 22 - t07:30:03z < p >博客文章表明,增加“废热”日益增长的城市化是偏置温度观测。这种观点的问题在于,直接从燃烧化石燃料产生的热量太少了差异,相比地球能量平衡的变化由于增加温室气体。看到:< / p > < blockquote > < p >将人为热通量与全球气候模型作者马克·g·弗兰纳< / p > < p > < / p > < p >大气科学,卷36,问题2,2009年1月。DOI: < a href = " http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036465 " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > 10.1029/2008 gl036465 < / > < / p > < p >文摘< a href = " http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036465 " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / > 1几乎所有能源用于人类和地球land-atmosphere系统中热量消散。因此热能释放不可再生资源是一种气候强迫项。全球平均,这迫使只是+ 0.028 W m−2,但在美国和西欧大陆,+ 0.39,+ 0.68 W m−2,分别。在这里,现在和未来全球库存的人为热通量(AHF)开发和参数化派生的季节性和昼夜变化周期。平衡气候实验表明显著大陆范围内的表面变暖(0.4 - -0.9°C)由一个2100 AHF场景,但不是2040年当前或预期。然而,年平均温度的显著增加和行星边界层(PBL)高度发生在gridcell今天AHF超过3.0 W m−2。PBL扩张导致轻微,但显著增加大气气溶胶large-AHF发出区域的停留时间。 Hence, AHF may influence regional climate projections and contemporary chemistry-climate studies.

The blog article says:

My guess is that 80% of this energy ends up as heat (2nd law thermodynamics). Assuming that energy consumption is concentrated mostly in urban areas then the net “anthropogenic” heating in those areas works out at around 5 watts/m2. This then leads to an average 1.4 degreeC. rise in temperature for urban areas. Anyone who has lived in the city knows from experience that the surrounding countryside is indeed some 1-2 degrees colder.

Indeed the climatologists know that as well, they are not stupid, and hence "homogenise" the observations to remove these sorts of biases. Note that if the bias were due to increasing urbanisation, this would be easily detectable by comparison with the observations from rural stations in the same region. This is not rocket science (see my answer here for links on homogenization)!

Note also that increasing urbanisation would not necessarily cause an increase in local forcing, because as you increase the fossil fuel use, you also increase the area over which it is dissapated, which the author of the blog post also appears to have missed.

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