厄尔尼诺在中东-地球科学堆栈交换江南电子竞技平台江南体育网页版 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 08 - t02:22:24z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/6858 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/6858 1 厄尔尼诺在中东地区 Mohsen Kh。 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/4758 2015 - 11 - 07 - t06:52:59z 2015 - 11 - 11 - t12:41:13z < p >根据报告和图表气象厄尔尼诺现象与伊朗关系密切,但问题是,厄尔尼诺现象在伊朗有可能实现吗?后果是什么? < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/6858/-/6861 # 6861 1 答案由戈登斯坦格对厄尔尼诺在中东地区 戈登斯坦格 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/4507 2015 - 11 - 07 - t08:44:44z 2015 - 11 - 07 - t08:44:44z < p >虽然太平洋厄尔尼诺现象主要是现象,影响环太平洋国家最多,它发生在这样一个大规模连锁影响世界各地。这些难以概括,但大致可以从全球的地图等页面的厄尔尼诺的影响:< a href = " http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/el-nino-droughts-take-toll-in-africa-asia-and-the-pacific/ " rel =“nofollow”> http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/el-nino-droughts-take-toll-in-africa-asia-and-the-pacific/ < / >记住,还有其他的海洋和大气环流co-variables操作时间尺度从几年到几十年不等。这些可以放大或者否定extra-Pacific厄尔尼诺现象的影响。因此任何一年需要建模的具体影响atmosphere-Ocean-coupled全球气候模型。也考虑到输出所有AOGCMs不同意,因此有必要考虑从画前数输出公司达成共识的结论。另一个考虑是,计算机模拟不给予不同的权重参数。伊朗而言,模仿厄尔尼诺效应很可能是非常可靠的温度,但对降雨非常不可靠。如果你担心降雨在伊朗运行我的建议是两个变量之间的相关分析:历史El-Nino-Southern振荡(ENSO)信号指数(互联网上可用),和历史降雨。试试这个月,季节性和/或年度数据。如果相关系数高,说> 0.70,使用这种关系调整正常预计降雨在伊朗。 Attach as much credence to this as to any forward projections from any AOGCM. Rainfall analysis is not what AOGCMs were designed for.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/6858/-/6872 # 6872 2 答案为厄尔尼诺userLTK在中东地区 userLTK //www.hoelymoley.com/users/2717 2015 - 11 - 08 - t14:39:46z 2015 - 11 - 08 - t14:39:46z < p >快速和一般的答案,如果有人想要更具体的,感觉自由:< / p > < blockquote > < p >问题是,厄尔尼诺现象在伊朗有可能实现吗?后果是什么? < / p >

Iran's been through several El Nino's, so its not like this year you'll see things you've never seen before. I mean, you could. There's always a chance of record breaking weather, but have a look at El Nino's and how often they occur, here and more numerical and monthly specifics here.

If we assume this year will be a strong El Nino, then look back at weather in Iran in winter 97-98 through Summer 1998, and Winter 82-83 into 1983. Those were the 2 most recent big El Ninos.

I found this article from last month. You probably have better access to local updates than I do, but it seems that frost and flooding are the primary concerns. As Gordon Stranger points out, that's not a guarantee, only an increased chance that it happens.

El Niño is close to Iran

El Nino is in the Pacific Ocean. The El Nino effect is all over the globe, so it's, in a sense, close to everywhere on earth. Here's a kind of cool picture of the effects of the 1982-83 El Nino. Those were just the effects for that one year, and no two El Nino's will affect the globe in the same way, though they can have some similar patterns.

enter image description here

Source

However, you should be afraid of the possible occurrence of El Niño in Iran?

When I first read this, I thought you were suggesting that he be afraid, but reading it again, I think what you're asking is whether you should be afraid.

El Nino probably isn't something to be afraid of cause there's no guarantee the effects will be bad where you are. It's silly to worry about a 30% increased chance of something happening - which is basically what this is.

If you live in a flood prone area try to prepare for flood. Have food and drinking water on hand, maybe sandbags to put in-front of your doorway - which might help for a smaller flood. If you're a farmer, as much as possible, try to prepare for Frost. Fear isn't helpful, but planning ahead for possible bad weather events is always a good idea.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/6858/-/6880 # 6880 1 答案为厄尔尼诺gansub在中东地区 gansub //www.hoelymoley.com/users/1066 2015 - 11 - 09 - t09:04:11z 2015 - 11 - 11 - t12:41:13z < p >本文除了其他两个答案< a href = " http://irj.iars.info/volumes/828005012015/pdf/82800501201501.pdf " rel =“nofollow”>降雨和厄尔尼诺现象之间的关系在伊朗< / >评估量子之间的关系在厄尔尼诺年降雨量在伊朗。这项研究的结论是,增加降雨在厄尔尼诺年在伊朗高原和降雨的减少是在沿海地区。对整个厄尔尼诺年有利于伊朗。作者使用皮尔逊相关研究的方法和结论有意义的关系确实存在在0.01显著性水平。考虑伊朗的地理和旱地这建议一个更仔细的水资源管理和确保降雨通过流域管理收获。< / p > < p >以下研究证实了上述结果< a href = " http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ (SICI) 1097 - 0088 (200001) 20:1 % 3 c47:: AID-JOC461 % 3 e3.0.co; 2 p /文摘”rel =“nofollow”> ENSO和秋季降水之间的关系在伊朗< / >和报告,厄尔尼诺事件产生比拉尼娜事件更大的降雨。,受益最大的地区是南部丘陵山区,西北地区和中部地区。水分的来源似乎地中海,黑海,波斯湾和红海。没有证据表明,太平洋和印度洋的水分来源。< / p > < p >除了以下研究< a href = " http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/846397/ " rel =“nofollow”>的影响厄尔尼诺南方涛动的放电侯尔河在伊朗< / >认为努力需要针对洪水和干旱可预测性。

In average, El Nino caused increased discharge by 15% at Chamriz station and 20% at Dehkadeh-Sefid station. The time of maximum impact was found in the months of February and March of the El Nino year. It can be expected that the results obtained in the present study will help to understand the variations of river discharge due to El Nino which in turn will help water managers, dam operators, and policy makers in water resources planning and management as well as flood and drought forecasting and mitigation.

In Synoptic Climatology of Precipitation in Iran authors conclude that upper level disturbances are responsible for over fifty percent of rainfall. If it is indeed the case rainfall maxima during El Nino years are experienced in February and March in Iran then these maybe due to Western Disturbances Western Disturbances. These are basically upper level systems (500 hPa and above) and the following study describes the dynamics of winter precipitation episodes over Iran as well Numerical study of western disturbances over western Himalayas using mesoscale model

Here is a recent review of Winter Western Disturbances and their multi annual variations. Multi-annual variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya. These authors confirm the same sources of moisture.

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