长期的风速预测:现实还是一厢情愿的想法?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 08 - 31 - t08:40:46z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/7704 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/7704 9 长期的风速预测:现实还是一厢情愿的想法? Jxson99 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/5301 2016 - 03 - 18 - t13:51:18z 2016 - 03 - 19 - t09:04:29z < p >我一直与风能学习/工作一段时间,我的一个主要任现在是寻找足够的<强> < /强>长期风速预测模型。然而,< / p > < p >两件事让我对这个任务。< / p >
  1. Wind speed forecasting is a task of great complexity for wind speed itself is highly stochastic. It depends on climate patterns, regional weather behavior, topography and atmospheric stability, or the lack of thereof, just to mention a few.

  2. The very own idea of "long-term" varies from researcher to researcher. So far I've found authors who claim that 1 to 7 days can be considered long-term (Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting,Jung & Broadwater, 2014); but also those who say one full year is the minimum threshold for long-term forecasting (The quality of weather information for forecasting of intermittent renewable generation, Sokolowska & Hossa, 2014). It's clear that forecasting horizon is highly linked to the aim of your research; therefore, when topics change, so will their forecasting horizons.

a. Isn't there a consensus about what long term means when it deals with wind speed forecasting?

b. Can it be assumed year(s)-long wind speed forecasting withsignificant accuracy is still some far-fetched, wishful thinking?

c. What are some efficient models out there yielding meaningful results?

I would like to hear your ideas/points as long as they can be backed by scientific reasoning. If you could point me out in the direction of research (proofs to your rationale) in long-term wind forecasting, I'd be downright grateful.

In case you have worked with this topic, then I'd enjoy hearing from your own experience.

Thank you so much in advance for all inputs.

//www.hoelymoley.com/questions/7704/-/7705 # 7705 1 回答通过丹尼尔Griscom长期风速预测:现实还是一厢情愿的想法? 丹尼尔Griscom //www.hoelymoley.com/users/534 2016 - 03 - 18 - t17:43:07z 2016 - 03 - 18 - t17:43:07z < p >风可以是一个令人难以置信的局部现象,在短期和长期的。尽管长期的大纲风力预测不应该太复杂或有争议的,正确的细节通常需要实际现场测量。谷歌< a href = " https://www.google.com/search?q =风% 20监控% 20声雷达“rel =“nofollow”>风测量声雷达< / >等一些很酷的工具测量。< / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/7704/-/7706 # 7706 9 回答在410年离开了长期风速预测:现实还是一厢情愿的想法? 410年不见了 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/100 2016 - 03 - 18 - t21:27:09z 2016 - 03 - 19 - t09:04:29z < p >警告:“长期风速预测的一代”(至少)两个非常不同的含义。一是指预测风速的分布;另指60分钟(或半小时按半小时)预测风速。< / p >

Generally, when we talk about long-term forecasting of wind speeds for wind generation, we're talking about estimating the distribution of wind speeds over the next few years. That is to say, we're not talking about what the wind speed will be exactly two years from today, at 15.00 UTC. We're talking about what the shape of the distribution of the wind speeds will be - maybe in terms of the two parameters of a Weibull distribution, together with some indication of how the distribution varies by time of day, and by season of the year.

There is some skill in hour-by-hour wind speed forecasts up to about two weeks away. But for longer than that, there's very little skill in the models at all. In that regard, if we are talking about hour-by-hour wind speed forecasts, then short term is the next 0.5 - 4 hours, and long-term is 1-2 weeks.

In both cases, I'd look at recent publications from Reading University - David Brayshaw and others - and specifically on the accuracy of wind forecasts for wind generation, I'd also recommend work by Henrik Madsen and Pierre Pinson.

Baidu
map