空间范围和各种风险的可预测性。- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换

空间范围和各种风险的可预测性。

2016 - 04 - 25 - t18:12:03z

我的问题关注以下三个灾害:地震、飓风和干旱。

In terms of spatial extent (wide spread, limited), I believe that earthquakes generally have the most limited spatial extent of the three, followed by hurricanes. However, I am unsure about droughts. I assume that they have the largest spatial extent of the three, but would anyone be able to give an explanation as to why?

With regard to their predictability (hazard assessment), I would say that the order (from most predictable to least) would be:

Hurricanes
Drought
Earthquakes

Hurricanes as past trends can be assessed and there are specific conditions that are required for a hurricane to form (e.g. between 5, 20 degrees from equator).

I am less sure about prediction methods for droughts, but I assume that precipitation levels can be monitored, etc.

Lastly, I am aware that historic trends can be assessed for earthquakes and the general areas that will be affected can be predicted, however it is difficult to predict where the earthquake will occur along the fault line and the magnitude (I am aware that there are numerous questions on the predictability of earthquakes)

I would love it if you could share your thoughts in terms of how you would order the hazards and why.

戈登斯坦格回答的空间范围和各种风险的可预测性。

2016 - 04 - 25 - t18:58:35z

一个不能订购这些危险而不被更精确。你认为地震能量阈值做什么?有micro-sismicity在其他星球上的大部分的大部分时间。死亡影响的区域的大小变大。和你认为空间范围?滑移足迹,或者该地区遭受一些事件大小?(很难定义)。 同样干旱可以定义许多不同的方法。天没有下雨吗?天以上特定雨阈值? Days in which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation? Days above a particular crop wilting point? Do you bring temperature into the equation? Moreover, in these days of climate change, falling water tables,and increasing frequency / intensity of El Nino, the area potentially affected by drought is evolving, so we need to be clear about the time period in our definition.

The area potentially affected by hurricanes varies on each continent, and requires global climatic modelling to define. The oceanic area in which hurricanes can develop has been discussed previously in the Earth Science stack exchange, but the single most important factor is the area with a sea surface temperature of >27 deg C. This is also a variable in these times of climate change.

haresfur答案的空间范围和各种风险的可预测性。

2016 - 04 - 26 - t00:15:37z

干旱并不是与地震和飓风,因为涉及的时间尺度的差异。我们通常可以考虑地震和飓风是在某个时间点上的离散事件。干旱,然而,有一个重要的和可变时间组件。例如,您可能会考虑一年的干旱严重低于平均降雨量是但也有多年的干旱与长时间的低降雨量。叙述地,你可以画出一个地区的平均降雨量随着累积偏离平均水平的趋势。甚至应该小心使用——一年的非常高的降雨可能产生重大影响的平均偏差但不会真正帮助雨养农业在随后的低年。< a href = " http://www.livescience.com/21469-drought-definition.html " rel =“nofollow”>这是一个干旱的定义不同指南< / >。

The probability of a hurricane hitting the eastern United States in the next decade probably approaches 1.0 but to narrow that down to specific cities is more difficult. Once one has formed, the meteorologists are getting very good at predicting where it will make landfall. In between, the probability of a hurricane striking a particular city in a given year is low.

With regards to earthquakes, there are many known faults where measurements indicate a high probability for a large earthquake. However, the timing may be within hundreds or thousands of years. We can predict where but not when.

These are all different ways of looking at prediction that illustrate the considerations in how we think about 'prediction'. Ranking them is comparing apples to oranges.