当模型校准他们使用的纠正降雨输入吗?- 江南体育网页版- - - - -地球科学堆江南电子竞技平台栈交换 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 07 - t17:40:07z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/7946 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/7946 1 当模型校准他们使用的纠正降雨输入吗? 戈登斯坦格 //www.hoelymoley.com/users/4507 2016 - 05 - 03 - t06:27:05z 2016 - 06 - 09 - t17:10:20z < p >校准全球气候模型的一部分涉及到“追”或“历史匹配”对历史气候记录,包括降雨。这样的降雨记录都是错误的,因为几乎所有的雨量器招致气动under-catch至少7%。通常这不是“纠正”但对于模型校准他们应该纠正。所以GCM使用纠正或未修正的降雨输入?如果是的,降雨记录是如何纠正——只是乘以1.07,还是其他方式?如果没有,为什么不呢?这是很重要的,因为,在全世界范围内,向前GCM输出被用于预测水资源(尽管这不是全球大气环流模型旨在支持)。< / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/7946/-/8143 # 8143 2 答案为当模型校准Balinus他们使用的纠正降雨输入吗? Balinus //www.hoelymoley.com/users/757 2016 - 06 - 09 - t17:10:20z 2016 - 06 - 09 - t17:10:20z < p >降水物理过程的结果。为每个模型实现对流和热力学过程不同(主要是通过参数化或由不同的网格单元分辨率),每个模型将产生不同的降水。因此,换句话说,你不能调整降水,但你可以调整的参数会产生沉淀。降雨是不容易观察到的,特别是在周期通常用于调优(~ 1850 - 1900),气候建模者不使用这些信息的调优。< / p > < p > Mauritsen et al。(2012)提供了一个有趣的这个主题的概述。下面给出抽象。从这篇文章中,州(重点是我):< / p > < p > " […制定和优化我们的目标是具有挑战性的。对我们来说,全球平均温度<强> < / >强密切绝对同意观察是最高优先级,因为<强>设置为与温度有关的流程< /强>。为此,我们目标在1850 - 1880年观察到的全球平均气温约13.7 \摄氏度(Brohan et al ., 2006)。除此之外,我们优先考虑有<强>全球平均TOA短波吸收和即将离任的长波辐射在良好的协议与卫星观测< / >强,加上<强> < /强>表示重要的气候变化模式。[…]"

Abstract

"During a development stage global climate models have their properties adjusted or tuned in various ways to best match the known state of the Earth’s climate system. These desired properties are observables, such as the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, the global mean temperature, sea ice, clouds and wind fields. The tuning is typically performed by adjusting uncertain, or even non-observable, parameters related to processes not explicitly represented at the model grid resolution. The practice of climate model tuning has seen an increasing level of attention because key model properties, such as climate sensitivity, have been shown to depend on frequently used tuning parameters. Here we provide insights into how climate model tuning is practically done in the case of closing the radiation balance and adjusting the global mean temperature for the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We demonstrate that considerable ambiguity exists in the choice of parameters,and present and compare three alternatively tuned, yet plausible configurations of the climate model. The impacts of parameter tuning on climate sensitivity was less than anticipated."

Citation

Mauritsen, Thorsten, Bjorn Stevens, Erich Roeckner, Traute Crueger, Monika Esch, Marco Giorgetta, Helmuth Haak, et al. 2012. “Tuning the Climate of a Global Model.” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 4 (3): n/a – n/a. doi:10.1029/2012MS000154.

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