< p >它开始通过识别天与良好的剪切叠加和地基不稳定。在美国我们有< a href = " http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >风暴预报中心< / >帮助表明这些天看着模型。通常最早迹象表明得到螺纹梳刀的注意力是一个合理的槽进入充足的水分和温暖的地区(有时截止上层低)工作。< / p > < p >然后前一天上午,最终得到目标区域缩小进一步通过观察可见和水汽图像,上层空气地图,和地面天气数据。基本上一般集中在表面特征……方面,低压中心,drylines,流出边界。追逐者通常会进入该地区当天午后,vortex和龙卷风是最常见的在下午和晚上。< / p > < p >一旦进入目标区,追逐者留意任何可用的卫星图像,地面天气数据,以及天空,寻找最初的风暴发展和可能需要的任何调整到目标区域。在很多情况下,云将开始< a href = " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_congestus_cloud " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >建立< / >也许发展脉动,给出指示的青睐的地区早在< a href = " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capping_inversion " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / >是限制了他们发展成vortex。< / p > < p >一旦风暴开始,利益成为强大和更加孤立风暴识别开发旋转,成为vortex。在北半球,超晶胞的“业务范围”通常是在南端附近,一个超晶胞通常会开始开发某种钩的形状,因为所有这超晶胞所示图片:< / p > < p > < a href = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/hJh7Y.jpg " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < img src = " https://i.stack.imgur.com/hJh7Y.jpg " alt = "超晶胞" > < / > < br >(来源:< a href = " http://thevane.gawker.com/what - - -超级单体雷暴- 1564133584”rel = " nofollow noreferrer " >什么是超级单体雷暴,由丹尼斯Mersereau叶片< / >)< / p > < p >大部分(但不是全部)vortex大约东北移动。 So knowing that, as the day evolves, a typical chaser will make choices to help end up on the south half of the storm so their visibility and path are not blocked by the stronger rain and hail. Then it comes down to road options, and paying attention to the storm and environment around you to watch whether the rotation is tightening up in the cloud base, as well as being aware of the temperature and wind for indications of how the storm may evolve. When it comes to models, you're right that they absolutely can't identify the tornado. However, convective models (like the HRRR) do often indicate the approximate areas where storms will develop a few hours ahead of time. But it doesn't appear models will be forecasting where tornadoes will form with any great reliability for quite a while still.
But in terms of hunting down tornadic storms, convective models, and for that matter any large deal of real-time data, certainly aren't a necessity. People have been chasing storms quite successfully long before all that was available. It's more reasonable than most realize. You choose the climatologically favorable tornado seasons to start, then seek out favorable areas within the large-scale pattern, and then refine your target by interpreting the conditions until you find yourself magically on the southern end of a hook, even without radar help.
For more input, I also suggest Mike Hollingshead's amazing high quality graphic tutorial, with a very useful snippet available on his StormAndSky website.
It looks like tornadoes are quite regular occurrences around China. I know of chasers around Europe, Australia, and South America, but am surprised there aren't more in China. Maybe that is soon to change?