高空数据(观察)和分析步骤为GFS模型-地球科学堆栈交换江南电子竞技平台江南体育网页版 最近30从www.hoelymoley.com 2023 - 07 - 08 - t03:39:11z //www.hoelymoley.com/feeds/question/9527 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/rdf //www.hoelymoley.com/q/9527 2 高空数据(观察)为GFS模型和分析步骤 Anand Kakarla //www.hoelymoley.com/users/5482 2017 - 01 - 25 - t11:09:02z 2017 - 01 - 25 - t16:17:11z < p >全球预测系统(GFS)给分析和预测在不同的时间步骤。输入的主要来源是高空数据只记录一天两次(观察正值00和12)。但分析步骤包括观察在00,06年,12日18小时。如何呢?是我基本理解理解完全错了? < / p > //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/9527/-/9531 # 9531 1 答案为高空JeopardyTempest数据(观察)为GFS模型和分析步骤 JeopardyTempest //www.hoelymoley.com/users/6298 2017 - 01 - 25 - t16:09:18z 2017 - 01 - 25 - t16:17:11z < p >你是对的,高空试探通常每天只做两次,甚至在相当粗观察间隔。< / p > < p >,高空数据模型中绝对是非常重要的。< / p > < p >我建议,首先,重要的是要注意,<强>甚至广泛,非常朦胧的高空照片帮助大量的表面< /强>。可以看到在< a href = " http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/255/ " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / >ω准地转方程。基本上大规模高点和低点和喷气条纹驱动大气中空气的垂直运动。加上没有那么多的复杂地形引起的地面覆盖/湿度/微分加热表层看到。因为这些大规模的进化特性很简单的一天,清晨的上层预测仍然是相当可靠的和有用的6小时后。< / p > < p >,但说,小规模shortwaves天气预报和涡度最大值绝对是至关重要的。和更小的尺寸和更瞬态性质,忽视他们的变化超过6小时可能真的对预测等关键的细微差别时你会看到龙卷风爆发或飓风追踪。< / p > < p >所以实际上,< em > < / em >我们如何认识这些变化吗?< / p > < p >好了,这些天我们有第二个来源,可能是至少调查结果一样重要,甚至部分——<强> < /强>卫星图像。< / p > < p >看到例如< a href = " http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-vis.html " rel = " nofollow noreferrer " > < / >卫星页面。你可以打开HDW-low HDW-mid HDW-high。 As far as I understand it, the models are ingesting that information readily (and likewise cloud coverage, which are just as important). I believe some satellites also have vertical temperature sounders that are used more now as well.

And third, we also have some other data sources that help. In certain parts of the world, we've got radars. I believe at least some of the better models these days are using that data... there's plenty of wind data to be had from velocities (though it would seem challenging to use/analyze it given things like range-folded velocities and the ambiguity of tangential winds see the intro to [this article]).

Plus, I believe at least the ECMWF has had real success in ingesting ACARS... atmospheric data that are generally reported by all commercial aircraft.

But... all that said, your point still has some real potency. Especially when we note that, when it comes to our best model, the ECMWF... it still only runs twice a day. Maybe other reasons drive the decision, but you'd think they still weigh how improved such forecasts are. So it seems fairly likely that they've determined that long-range forecasts don't improve much when they are still based heavily upon that older information.

But then, I think everyone would agree that having hourly models available like the HRRR is very useful in important nowcasting situations, such as severe weather awareness. So maybe the overlooked small data changes are (counterintuitively?) more important to long-range forecasting than short-term. Definitely an interesting question you've raised!

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