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在每一个专业领域,从业人员可能回家一天结束的时候,说“是啊!我撞掉了公园里的!”,或者“哦,男人。明天要做得更好。”What about meteorologists? When a meteorologist makes a weather forecast, she will strive to "get it right", so that when the date in question arrives her prediction will have matched the actual temperature, dew point, wind velocity and direction, precipitation, etc. But, when that date arrives, and the actual conditions have been measured and compared to the prediction, how is the prediction graded? Precipitation seems to be the most problematic aspect, as it's quite nonlinear and predicted statistically. What does it mean to have "gotten it right" by predicting a 30% chance of precipitation? Yes, it rained 30% of the time? Yes, it rained in 30% of the forecast area? Yes, 30% of the public will answer "Yes" if asked whether it rained? There's complexity in the other metrics as well. For instance, how are errors in the different values compared? Would it be better to get the temperature spot on but the wind velocity 5MPH high, or the wind exactly right but the temperature 5°F high? What about timing: what if that front came through two hours after it was predicted? Edit: part of the difficulty is getting clarity about the consumer of the weather information. Fred the Farmer wants to know how much rain he can expect in next day or so, but the exact timing probably isn't important. Pete the Party Planner wants to herd his guests into the bar before the front comes through, but if it's going to rain he probably doesn't care whether it drops a quarter inch or a half. And Francine the Fisherman doesn't really care about the precipitation at all (within limits); her world centers around wind and waves. I may want to post a second question that is explicitly from the consumer viewpoint: given weather data and meteorologists' historical forecasts, how would I choose a meteorologist?

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\ begingroup美元另请参阅www.hoelymoley.com/q/295/124 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -BHF银行
2014年5月29日8时
1

\ begingroup美元看到weather.gov / mdl / verification_home大量的验证统计和洞察力。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -JeopardyTempest
2017年5月26日,在6:17吗
1

\ begingroup美元 @JeopardyTempest好资源!你应该考虑成为一个答案。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -丹尼尔Griscom
2017年5月26日12:39
\ begingroup美元 @DanielGriscom如果我记得后来,我会看看的。答案在这里真的不太精确,虽然我不经常参与验证,我了解它,应该能够挖掘出一些细节给希望更有用的答案。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -JeopardyTempest
2017年5月26日,在42吗
\ begingroup美元这里有一个相关资源:xkcd.com/1985 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -丹尼尔Griscom
2018年4月27日11:58

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