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为什么全球变暖失控的可能性,尽管当前所有化石燃料一旦被大气中的存款?

免责声明:这个问题不是关于气候变化和全球变暖,并没有试图把人类引起的全球变暖。

全球变暖失控的概念描述了一个场景,气候进入一个不可阻挡的正反馈循环,这种情况常被描绘成发生在所有化石燃料已经用完了。这个话题经常出现在讨论化石燃料会持续多久,警告,地球将无法居住如果(或之前)所有化石燃料用完了。

然而,所有这些化石燃料曾经在大气中以有限公司的形式₂之前,他们最终被植物吸收。为什么不金星那样条件的形式,因为他们没有,为什么结果会不同的未来吗?

回答

“化石燃料”是一个灰色地带。大量的碳酸盐岩不充分燃料。还有很多深层页岩可能被认为是化石燃料不可能使用的,因为它太难以到达,尽管它可以水力压裂和可以使用它的百分比。另外,所需的化石燃料燃烧(使用)的速度,这可能会失控的全球变暖是不确定的,但可能是巨大的。也许数量级高于当前projecte消费率。维基百科文章[失控的温室][1]说:>随着太阳变得亮10%约十亿年的时间,地球的表面温度>将达到47°C (117°F),导致地球的温度>上升迅速,海洋蒸发掉,直到>今天变成了温室地球与金星。目前地球表面平均温度约16°C, 50年前,大约15°C。甚至目前的政府间气候变化专门委员会预测最高47度估计相去甚远。虽然有一些的不确定性这些数字,至少有一个很好的机会,失控的温室过渡点的范围。>为什么全球变暖失控的可能* *尽管当前>化石燃料一旦被大气中* *存款? The Earth used to have a lot more CO2 in the atmosphere hundreds of millions and billions of years ago, though there is some uncertainty as to how thick the atmosphere was, so good atmospheric models are impossible, but it's likely that CO2 levels were orders of magnitude higher a couple billion years ago than they are today, but that wasn't a too much heat problem because the Sun was smaller and less luminous. [![enter image description here][2]][2] This chart gives an idea of how the transition happened, and, during Earth's past, the Earth was in fact, believed to [have been a snowball][3] for extended periods, even with higher CO2. [![enter image description here][4]][4] Also see [Faint Young Sun Paradox][5]. There are other factors. Volcanic activity puts particulates and SO2 high in the atmosphere that reflects sunlight and cools the Earth and Earth was probably more volcanic hundreds of millions and billions of years ago. Large meteor impacts like the Chicxulub impact [create flash warming][6] followed by years of [significant cooling][7] caused by dust and ash blasted into the upper atmosphere. There were, certainly, large enough meteors impacts during the late-heavy bombardment that the oceans boiled away and Earth was heated up and the atmosphere was hot and filled with water-vapor as well as CO2, but those were fleeting periods in geological time. The dust and debris blown into the atmosphere leads to fairly rapid cooling following those large impacts. The sun was too cold in the Earth's past for Earth to ever experience a runaway greenhouse effect, but in a billion years or so, [that is expected to change][8]. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_greenhouse_effect#Distant_future [2]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/cCKTj.jpg [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth [4]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/10B7P.png [5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faint_young_Sun_paradox [6]: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-happened-seconds-hours-weeks-after-dino-killing-asteroid-hit-earth-180960032/ [7]: http://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-impact-winter-20140517-story.html [8]: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg14219191-900-science-fiery-future-for-planet-earth/

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