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海平面上升不寻常吗?

我和一个朋友讨论气候变化是气候变化否认者,基本观点是,看看这张图,还不清楚一些不寻常的东西,所以海平面上升是在那里的东西,所有的自然不是由人类活动引起的。你能解释一下吗?

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问题在于增加* * * * * *汇率* *的海平面上升。我拿出一些近似的数字从显示的图你:[![在这里输入图像描述][1]][1]你能看到现在有海平面上升更快的比一个世纪前今天?海平面上升,以及地球上的历史气候变化是正常的事情。然而,大多数时候他们以非常缓慢的速度发生,使生态系统和其他进程来适应这种变化。例如,如果气候变化几个数百年,甚至动物和树的数量可以“转移”的分布,气候仍对他们有利。但如果50年来的气候变化,所有的树木可以死之前有时间增长的地区可以茁壮成长在新的气候。在海平面上升的情况下。河的三角洲为例,在平衡与海平面由于河边的沉积物的积累。如果海平面上升缓慢,沉积物可以填补三角洲和保持大约在海平面。 But if the see level rises too quick for the sedimentation to keep up, it will be flooded by the sea, killing all the animals and people that live on such fertile environments. Analogously, coastal infrastructure have a given lifetime. Let's say 50 years. If the sea level doesn't change much over that period (8.5 cm at the 1880-1940 rate), there is no problem. Once the infrastructure gets replaced, the new building will be set a bit higher. However, in the next 50 years the sea level could rise 50 cm, or even more (it would be 19 cm if we assume the last rate from the figure won't increase any further), and that is a big deal. That could mean that much coastal infrastructure will be flooded, and maybe destroyed during storms. In places like Bangladesh there are hundred of millions of people that could be displaced due to sea level rise if the rate keeps increasing. People that will also need to find a new home. Coastal infrastructure loss, coastal erosion and immigration could be some of the worst expressions of **fast** sea level rise. **ADDITION** Given the interest risen by this question I'm adding here some data beyond what is presented by the OP, and brought to my attention by @Bobson in the comments. It comes from the paper [Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?][2] and shows a sea level reconstruction going back to 1700, and it shows also the changes in rate over that period. This is summarized in their figure 3: [![enter image description here][3]][3] Here you can clearly see how, with some ups and downs, the rate of sea level rise have been increasing over the last few centuries. And notably the current rate, about 20 years after the end of this plot is already out of the scale, and around [3.2 mm/year][4] as pointed also by other answers. I would highlight the following from their abstract: > Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm in the 20th > century.Superimposed on the long-term acceleration are quasi-periodic > fluctuations with a period of about 60 years. If the conditions that > established the acceleration continue,then sea level will rise 34 cm > over the 21st century. Longtime constants in oceanic heat content and > increased ice sheet melting imply that the latest > Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of sea > level are probably too low. Regarding to whether this is caused by humans or not, I rather stay out of that argument and point that our best science and models suggest that lowering $\text{CO}_2$ emissions can make a significant impact in slowing down sea level rise in the upcoming centuries, so **we should ACT NOW, and stop arguing whether it was or not our fault in the first place**. [1]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/AXhoH.png [2]: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2008GL033611 [3]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/NFD7a.png [4]: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

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\ begingroup美元优秀的答案解决气候变化的最可怕方面:税率。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -Gimelist
2019年1月28日,在0:54
7

\ begingroup美元这是很长一段路要指出CC的真正风险——与其说,地球变得无法居住,但这改变其适居性形象毁了我们复杂的,全球化的经济体系。这将导致难民,饥荒、国际合作的破裂和恢复geo-politcal景观,最后一次露面是在1930年代。我们都知道发生了什么。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -奥斯卡布拉沃
2019年1月28日14:08
3

\ begingroup美元之前需要明确的海平面上升,8000年前你可以步行从法国到英国。结束最后的冰川推进造成了早全新世海平面上升(60米)和很多定居点被增加。但自那以来海平面一直很稳定,直到现在。我们不知道是什么原因让变化及其当前是由什么原因造成的。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -约翰
2019年1月28日,在38
2

\ begingroup美元过去的140年里的这张图不能用来证明任何事情,考虑地球有45亿年的历史,以及海平面上升在过去,甚至远远超过4毫米/年 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -user3163495
2019年1月28日,在十六22
3

\ begingroup美元 @user3163495毫无疑问的。海平面上升在过去的快得多。但你仍然需要解释为什么它稳定了几千年,现在又突然上升的速度快。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -卡米洛·Rada
2019年1月28日16:27

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