Timeline forDebunking weather conspiracy with statistics - why does temperature rise then fall for last weekend in June in recent years
Current License:CC BY-SA 4.0
11 events
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| Apr 26, 2019 at 15:20 | history | edited | John | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Apr 26, 2019 at 15:13 | comment | added | John | The data dredging was not on your part, but by the people who picked that festival to focus on. if someone examines enough festivals they will find some with odd looking behavior by pure chance. You are misunderstanding what i mean by noise the day to day variation is noise, the change in the variation across the entire time scale is do to climate change, the underlying trend changes in the 1970's. Even if there were no dredging the change in yearly behavior is completely explained by this. | |
| Apr 26, 2019 at 14:23 | comment | added | Ashish | And in regard to your first point, obviously this is a spurious effect. I am just trying to determine why I found it. This is not a common theory that conspiracy theorists found by data dredging. Weather manipulation in general is a known theory, but in regard to this festival this was just something that my friend with absolutely no data analysis skills came up with based on his anecdotal experience and memory. | |
| Apr 26, 2019 at 14:15 | comment | added | Ashish | There was no data dredging. I tested one hypothesis. Every decision I made was strictly driven by theory (misguided theory nonetheless, but still not data dredging). You make it sound like I was testing all different years to split arbitrarily. And secondly, the day-to-day rise and fall is not just statistical noise--that's precisely the point of the post and the slope was non-zero in the "conspiracy-ridden years" and 0 in the "innocuous years". If it were noise, it would cancel out to be a slope of 0 in all of the years. | |
| Apr 26, 2019 at 3:52 | comment | added | John | The long term trend is controlling the only significant factor, that the data changes behavior in the 1970's nothing else in noteworthy. the rise and fall is just statistical noise, it's not significant. it is pure data dredging. like drawing the bullseye around a cluster of shots already fired and declaring superb accuracy. | |
| Apr 26, 2019 at 1:54 | history | bounty ended | Gimelist | ||
| Apr 25, 2019 at 14:52 | comment | added | John | but you are noting how this changes over many years, you note the behavior of the weather changes in 1972 that is the significant factor. the fact the average temprature is rising will impact this. temprature rising and falling from day to day is completely normal. | |
| Apr 25, 2019 at 12:54 | comment | added | Gimelist | The question was asked specifically about the last weekend of June, temperature rising and falling. This is unrelated to the long-term trend. | |
| Apr 25, 2019 at 12:53 | history | edited | Gimelist | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Apr 24, 2019 at 14:53 | history | edited | John | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Apr 24, 2019 at 13:31 | history | answered | John | CC BY-SA 4.0 |