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可靠的测量全球加热从卫星会如何?

一些人为全球加热(啊)怀疑论者否认全球加热发生。我找到了一种方法,可以用来反驳他们。加权平均的所有热点在地上可以每天计算。这些热点得到的热图像。

这些观点将卫星决议分开。这将提供一个全球供暖的实际测量。我们可以减去城市和火山的影响通过简单地忽略每一个价值超过一定阈值。这种阈值的一个例子的所有点的平均值。

这是一个合理的方式双重检查全球气温异常的趋势?

回答

测量卫星的长期温度趋势是可能的,但困难由于各种各样的原因。这是正在进行的研究。简而言之:卫星已经存在足够长的时间建成测量天气,气候,需要构建工具的标准来衡量一个完全不同于另一个。我们有大气层的卫星测量自1960年代以来,自1970年代末和操作。这些总是包括红外辐射计测量,这意味着,在原则上,我们可以构造一个表面(包括陆地和海洋)的记录和大气温度至少在过去的40年。传感器本身不是很复杂,但我们需要确定趋势很有信心对自己的不确定性、稳定性和inter-satellite可变性。如果你仅仅需要40年HIRS红外测量和阴谋,你不知道这些变化是由于大气或工具的变化。从2015年到2019年,我在(FIDUCEO)项目的一部分,旨在带来的科学计量学测量(科学)卫星观测。在40年的AVHRR(对于海洋表面温度)或HIRS(大气温度和湿度)测量,仪器的16个不同的版本在一段40年。但AVHRR建于看云的照片。 If you look at pictures of clouds, the user doesn't care if one satellite has its pictures 0.5% brighter than the previous one. They just tweak their monitor a bit! But if you take the global climate system, then that corresponds to more than 1K temperature difference, which for the oceans, would be huge. In FIDUCEO, we aimed to: * Develop a metrology of Earth Observation * Produce *Fundamental Climate Data Records* (FCDRs) for various operational meteorological instruments in visible, infrared, and microwave, meaning: * Per-datum metrologically traceable uncertainty characterisation; * Per-datum information on correlation structures: which component of the error estimate cancels out when averaging and which component remains; * Harmonisation between the various satellite sensors. Here are 40 years of [HIRS](https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/instruments/view/183) (versions 2, 3, and 4), on which we tried to do some harmonisation. The top panel shows global average brightness temperature per 24-hour period, as measured by channel 2 which IIRC peaks somewhere in the stratosphere, so this would correspond roughly to an atmospheric temperature somewhere up in the stratosphere (which, incidentally, is cooling as the Earth's surface is warming): [![40 years of HIRS][1]][1] The different colours indicate different satellites. As you can see, there are both jumps between satellites, and trends within one satellite. Some of this is expected, as polar-orbiting sun-synchronous satellites have a drifting local equator crossing time, but some of it is due to instrumental problems. Some of those problems are captured by the structured uncertainty in the bottom panel, but not all of it. The data only go back to the mid-1980s, because before that, there weren't enough overlaps to constrain the differences between subsequent pairs of satellites based on simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs). For satellites in the early 1980s and late 1970s, the coefficients to calibration the thermometres measuring the temperature of the on-board calibration target appear to have been lost. For the earliest satellites the header data does not match available documentation. Software to produce this figure is [on Github](https://github.com/fiduceo/FCDR_HIRS), raw source data are available [from NOAA CLASS](https://www.bou.class.noaa.gov/saa/products/welcome), some processed data from [FIDUCEO]. This is for a global average. To do this regionally would add additional complications. The [CLARREO](https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satelliteprogrammes/view/21) programme is proposed to be the first in-orbit SI reference for accurate calibration. Had we had that for the past 40 years, our job would be easier. But CLARREO is still waiting for funding. So the answer to your question is: with what we have now — not good enough — yet. But if you are contemplating a career in satellite techno-archeology, I recommend it. It's great fun. [1]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/8VVFZ.png [FIDUCEO]: http://www.fiduceo.eu/

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\ begingroup美元很好地解决!我想如果你要开始这与现代仪器测量,因为楼主似乎暗示,你仍然需要等待30多年来得到一个好足够的时间序列。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -jeffronicus
在世界时间2019年11月14日
1

\ begingroup美元 @jeffronicus哦,是的,很多科学家与实际SI-calibrated等不及开始测量仪器。但谁将为此付出代价,特别是考虑到它应该永远?气候变化的最佳候选人国际海事组织会哥白尼服务(c3),也许吧。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -gerrit ♦
2019年11月14日20:57
\ begingroup美元这是一个非常支持的答案。我希望它将补充xls表。那么一个可以,说,平均1000天,比较1987 - 1990年期间和2015 - 18平均水平。然后误差棒大致可以认为是~ 0.2 c。我觉得你会看到30多年没有区别,和所有您的数据不支持冰球棍——没有变暖,没有冷却,正如预期。谢谢你的诚实的数据。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -啤酒. . chenski
2019年11月15日截止
\ begingroup美元 @Ale . .chenski我图上的轴的50 K(亮度温度),涵盖了40年,曲棍球球棍图有一个轴的范围小于2°C和涵盖了1000年。他们表现出不同的东西。你可以计算这个自己下载40年的HIRS数据(大约2 TB),遵循FIDUCEO链接在我回答的更多信息。软件是github上(链接添加到回答)。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -gerrit ♦
2019年11月15日在9:04

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