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气候变化将如何影响降水的纬向分布在每个纬度的地区?

换句话说……它将如何影响降水在热带地区?中纬度地区吗?和极地纬度?

我感兴趣的是降水量的均值和方差。

回答

似乎没有一个共识模型。所有的5个主要模型细节我最后一次上存在分歧。没有人超过一般预测的细节。有普通模式基于气候变化的类型及其主要驱动原因。简单:-)变暖改变:让几乎所有湿。更高的整体大气温度允许持有更多的水。-)从水的温室气体变暖:影响最强最干旱地区的二氧化碳和甲烷等温室气体提供温室效应的水蒸气。极地纬度最强烈地影响与低纬度地区的沙漠不同,他们通常有足够的空气流通带来水,如果整个空气温度上升足够高的运输。减少热带和极地地区间温度和湿度差异导致风力和风暴强度降低。在大多数模型,阿拉斯加北部大片地区、加拿大和西伯利亚会变得潮湿和温带。 Something like the north Western coast of North America (Oregon to B.C.) Lots of soaking rain but few storms. I've seen it nicknamed the "Great Soggy" model. -) Warming solar: Effects most significant first in the tropical regions because the regions more consistent solar exposure. Initially at least, higher temperature differentials and more violent storms but those will decrease as the poles warm but likely poles will still have a relative lack of greenhouse warming from water vapor so temperatures will never equalize to the degree in the Greenhouse gas driven warming. Still more rain overall that current period used as a baseline combined with more violent weather. -) End of ice age: Likely, decrease in storm activity (the tropics don't cool at the same rate as the poles do during ice ages, so big storms) overall increase in perception. It is uncertain how ice ages affect non-water greenhouses gasses. On one hand, massive expanding biomass will suck huge amounts of CO2 out the atmosphere, on the other hand decaying biomass and possible exposure and subsequent biodegradation of ice interred biomass will cause net release of methane (CH4) whose greenhouse effect is 100 times that CO2. Depending on how that all balances out, the poles will get wetter or dryer. -) Cooling change: Makes everything dryer. Overall temperature change makes the atmosphere hold less water. -) Start of ice age: Overall decreased precipitation with overall decrease in air temp and humidity. Increase in temp differential between tropics and poles caused by increased albedo from spreading perma-snow and then ice sheets. As biomass dies from cold, there will be some increase in CO2 meth -) Greenhouse gasses driven cooling: In principle, to rapid warming can cause ice melting from land masses in the arctic which can shutdown the oceanic conveyer which is the massive world circling ocean current that moves at least 50% of the heat around the earth. If the conveyer shuts down, the poles will get suddenly cooler and dryer and the tropics will likely not get hotter and wetter but will expand into a wider latitude north and south. Temperature differentials will increase while at the same time the distance will decrease. This will drive massive storms. However, likely to be short lived. Conveyer will reactivate in a decade or so at most. -) Solar cooling: Somewhat the reverse of last. Overall dryer as the water holding of the total atmosphere decreases. Dry polar regions expand, wet tropics shrink. Increase in wind speeds but overall decrease in precipitation. Dying biomass will provide greenhouse gases but scale of offset unknown. Increase in storm activity relative to current base line. Of all the forms of climate change, greenhouse driven warming is the best scenario as the effects will be the least intense and will likely last no more than a century. Increasing rain fall and expansion of the temperate band will bring many benefits to Alaska, Canada and Russia. Increase in rainfall offset by decrease in wind speeds and storm violence. The start of the next Ice Age would be the worst case scenario. Droughts mixed with high winds and violent dry storms followed by longer and longer winters cumulating in permanent snow followed by kilometer thick glaciers that scrap everything down to the bedrock.

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\ begingroup美元 OP是专门询问从incrased人为气候变化的温室气体,因此全球变暖与气候变化标签。你似乎已经回答了几个不同类型的气候变化,这是一个相当混乱的配对的问题和答案。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -410年不见了
2014年7月7日在5:51
\ begingroup美元 OP问问关于“气候变化”,有多个模式。如果作者想知道anthrogenic温室气体驱动的改变,他会这么说。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -TechZen
2014年7月8日14:54
2

\ begingroup美元你可能已经错过了重大公共和科学话语已经持续了约过去30年:“气候变化”有一个非常具体的基本赞同,明确指人为温室气体驱动的变化在人类寿命。使用“气候变化”是指多个模式的数千到数百万年来气候变化是一个不太常见的使用。注意全球变暖标签问题,应该删除任何挥之不去的歧义。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -410年不见了
2014年7月9日,在38

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