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为什么我们不能增加云覆盖地球的平均温度降低洪水流域增加蒸发吗?

低于海平面有数百万平方公里的陆地,主要在沙漠地区。地球的平均温度降低2°C需要增加云层的层云地球总面积的3%(假设80%反射,典型的层云),约336万平方公里。我理解有问题多少蒸发将成为云量(云层不同类型的云),不过似乎蒸发量的增加会增加云层或多或少云的分布比例,大多数云层云,从而提供一个冷却效果。

回答

云层形成对流细胞当潮湿空气上升——云覆盖范围的大小在很大程度上是由对流细胞,没有水分。不同斑块之间出现温差时,在温暖的空气膨胀,产生低压,拉在底部潮湿空气上升。随着海拔的增加压力下降,降低了温度。当它变得足够高和寒冷的水瀑布雨。更多的水分意味着更重的雨,从较低的高度。但云是一个函数的大小对流室的大小,取决于温度的模式差异。得到更多的云层覆盖的区域,你将不得不改变温暖地区和寒冷地区之间的平衡,这样的温暖是那么激烈,更多的地理上分散和寒冷的比特在地理上更强烈和更集中。的平均温度增加或减少不改变的差异。甚至变得或多或少的差异强烈不改变补丁的大小,高于或低于平均水平。这是一个三阶效应。 Cloud physics is very complicated and not fully understood, and it's effect on the global energy balance likewise. Clouds form in warm areas, in the process cutting off the sunlight and cooling the land beneath them. They act a bit like a thermostat, smoothing out temperature variations - although not in the sense of aiming for a specific temperature. This results in feedback loops with various time delays - local warming causes more clouds causes local cooling causes reduced clouds. Their effect on the global energy balance depends on their altitude. Low clouds are made of warm water and radiate lots of infrared to space, high clouds are cold and radiate much less. They have different effects during the day and the night - at night they cause less infrared to be radiated to space, being at a higher, cooler altitude, causing net warming. So what effect they have depends on what time of day they form. And there are feedback interactions with the temperature of the oceans which cause a massive time lag compared to the land which warms and cools very quickly, the effect of mountains and terrain and vegetation, different amounts of sunlight at different latitudes and seasons, and so on. The effect on the climate of clouds at the equator is very different to the effect of clouds in Antarctica during the long darkness of winter. Feedback cycles with time delays result in oscillations, and an oscillator forced by regular pushes from an independent driver (like summer/winter) tends to result in the phenomenon of 'chaos', as <a href="https://eapsweb.mit.edu/sites/default/files/Index_Cycle_Alive_Well_85q.pdf">pioneered</a> by the meteorologist Edward Lorenz. Even with perfectly understood deterministic rules, the behaviour can be irregular, complex, apparently 'random'; a fractal structure with variation on every time scale. In addition, the effect on global mean temperature is a cumulative process. If one supposed the net cloud cover over a year was a random number, centred on a fixed value but varying slightly from year to year, then the amount of heat in the system would be pushed up and down from the previous year's value by a random amount - a classic 'random walk'. If you plot a sequence of independent random numbers, you get a uniform fuzzy cloud of points. If you plot the cumulative sum of the same numbers, you get a rough line that wanders up and down like a mountain range. Over short periods, you get what appear to be rising and falling 'trends', just from random numbers. It's <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/3/173/2012/esd-3-173-2012.pdf">very hard</a> to distinguish this sort of thing from deterministic drivers; different researchers have come to radically different conclusions based on the same data. When the process driving it is not a nice, independent, mathematically well-behaved random number generator, but a chaotic process that can hop between different meta-stable states at long intervals, the issue is even worse. The natural background level varies by relatively large amounts over long time periods. Clouds add precisely this sort of noise to the climate. There isn't any global shortage of water surface to evaporate from - two thirds of the Earth's surface is water. And it's not generally any cloudier over the sea. Clouds are driven by *temperature differences* causing air to rise or fall convectively. Clouds rising cool, and drop the excess moisture as rain. More moisture results in thicker cloud and more rain, but not necessarily a greater area covered. And the effects of cloud on climate are not so simple and straightforward, or easily understood. If you really want to reduce the albedo of the Earth, you'd be better off painting the ground white. Clouds are a highly unreliable way of doing it.

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\ begingroup美元谢谢你的详细的回答。我同意云没有很好的模型建模——我云一会儿而在喷气推进实验室工作。让我把两个点,第一个云优先来自海洋表面的水蒸发了,无论他们可能合并。第二个代替一个更好的模型,层云将形成优先最常见的尤其是在海面。认为的——如果地中海沙漠表面温度不会它最有可能增加意味着什么? \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -迈克尔•兰佩尔
2021年10月3日15:40
\ begingroup美元的没有缺水;我建议在撒哈拉地区的洪水地区或阿拉伯沙漠(或索尔顿海盆地CA)将提供一个非常大的(几个百分比)增加蒸发水——这可能是一个非常大的交易。毕竟2 c只是~ 0.7%的地球的平均温度,但它看起来像一个灾难性的气候变化和生态系统。我认为这样做是对环境更友好比其他任何大规模干预气候——碳捕获,播种大气与其他化学物质,或其他。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -迈克尔•兰佩尔
2021年10月3日16:18

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