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火山喷发时，站在火山边上的人能幸存吗?

想象一下，有几个人在一座巨大的火山边上，在到达山顶的半路上，火山爆发了。在他们旁边有个通往钱伯斯的入口。

火从被撕裂的山顶喷出。天空中突然响起了电闪雷鸣。黑色的暴雨像鞭子一样落下。

四周都裂开了，有烟和烟雾从深坑和裂口中冒出来。在他们身后，那座大山震动了。它的侧面裂开了巨大的裂缝。一道道缓慢的火焰顺着长长的斜坡向他们涌来。很快他们就会被吞没。一场炽热的灰雨正在落下。

根据描述，是否一定意味着致命的不可避免的火山碎屑流随之而来?

他们能在最初的爆发中幸存下来，并活到几个小时后救援人员到来吗?

为了不太明显，我描述的是j·r·r·托尔金笔下主人公的处境。我想知道佛罗多和山姆是否还有可能在真正的火山爆发中幸存下来。

回答

解读作者的意图总是很难的。但对我来说，“一场热灰雨”听起来不像火山碎屑流，而更像一种不同的火山灾害。“缓慢的火河”似乎更明显，可能指的是熔岩流**。“烟雾”可以理解为**火山气体**。因此，这次喷发似乎至少呈现了三种主要的火山灾害。有关火山危害的完整列表，请参见例如[这张USGS海报][1](公共领域):[!与其他火山灾害相比，火山碎屑降落、熔岩流和火山气体很少造成死亡。参见例如*火山灾害和事件:一个新的数据库* ([Witham, 2005][3])。根据火山灾害分类，收集了自1600年以来与火山有关的278,341例死亡病例(表15)。下面是一段摘要:|危险|死亡| % | |:---- |------:|-----:| |熔岩| 1564 | 0.56 | b| Tephra/弹道| 13 981 | 5.02 | |气体和酸雨| 2018 | 0.73 | **熔岩流**很少致命，因为它们很慢。 There are some cases of fast lava, which have been deadly, like the [1977 eruption of Mount Nyiragongo][4]. But Tolkien said the rivers of fire were "slow", so we can rule out this hazard as potentially lethal for the protagonists. **Tephra falls** mostly kill by roof collapse: when a thick layer of tephra accumulate on a roof, it will eventually collapse, killing the people inside. This is what killed most victims during the [1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo][5]. So, as long as the protagonists stay outside, they should also be safe from this hazard. **Volcanic gases** rarely kill. Most of the deaths listed in this database are the 1746 victims of the [Lake Nyos disaster][6]. Other than this exceptional event, you'd have to stay very close to the gas source to get asphyxiated. So, what are the hazards that do kill lots of people? Here is the top 4: | Hazard | Deaths | % | |:---- |------:|-----:| | Disease, starvation etc | 97 330 | 34.97 | | Pyroclastic flows/debris avalanches | 63 877 | 22.95 | | Tsunami | 44 610 | 16.03 | | Lahar/jokulhlaups | 39 042 | 14.03 | Let's skip the first one, as it is considered as an indirect hazard and needs time to be "efficient". That leaves three hazards that could kill the protagonists: pyroclastic flows, tsunamis and lahars. In the passage you quoted, nothing evokes the first two. The "torrent of black rain", on the other hand, could very well trigger a lahar. **Lahars** tends to be confined to valleys (as shown on the USGS diagram), so the protagonists would be at risk of dying if they were running in a valley. **Pyroclastic flows** do not necessarily occur; they occur only if part of the ash plume collapses. But even in that case, it does not have a 360° impact. For instance, this map shows the area impacted by the pyroclastic flow (black outline) that killed ~28,000 people during the [1902 eruption of Mount Pelee][7] (Alfred Lacroix, public domain): [![enter image description here][8]][8] The impacted area covers only ~50° to the SW of the volcano. If the protagonists were anywhere outside this area, they would have been perfectly safe. People in towns outside this outline, like Le Morne-Rouge, actually survived (only to be killed later that year during subsequent volcanic activity, but that's another story). In summary, even if a "deadly inescapable pyroclastic flow" follows (which is not granted given the description), the protagonists would have a chance to survive if they were on the "good" side of the volcano! [1]: https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/geologic-hazards-volcanoes-download-full-poster-click-here [2]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/41OCa.jpg [3]: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.04.017 [4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Nyiragongo#1977_eruption [5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatubo#Death_toll [6]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos_disaster [7]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1902_eruption_of_Mount_Pel%C3%A9e [8]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/KvSoE.jpg

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\ begingroup美元多么好的回答和简洁的数据库! \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -JeopardyTempest
2022年10月8日16:26
\ begingroup美元这是否意味着火山碎屑流在喷发期间不一定会发生(或者大到足以吞噬周围的一切)?即使是在一个发射“炽热的废墟”，杀死九只巨大的鸟(Nazgûl的飞马)在天空中(冲向山)? \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -尤金
2022年10月9日2:02
2

\ begingroup美元顺便说一句:如果我没记错的话，这座火山有一个熔岩湖。熔岩湖只出现在玄武岩盾状火山上，而火山碎屑流一般出现在层状火山上。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -让-玛丽•Prival
2022年10月10日13:39
\ begingroup美元我同意这个答案，但对于一个爆炸性的爆发，发生在1980年的圣海伦斯火山在美国，如果在这样一座火山“爆发”时，没有人有机会在这样的“爆发”中幸存下来。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -弗雷德
2022年10月10日17:34
\ begingroup美元很多谢谢!我仍然担心这个“长洞或隧道，钻到山里的烟筒”。我想大部分能量都是在峰顶释放出来的，隧道也没有在霍比特人身后爆炸。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -尤金
2022年10月11日2:33

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