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一切都影响着地球上的一切吗?

如果一个蝴蝶可以改变未来,然后不能每一行动保持未来的混乱?根据蝴蝶效应问题,这一定是这样,不是吗?如果这是一个准确的描述现实世界,如果很多事情行动不断在其他事情,有没有一种方法来预测或行动吗?如果是这样,我们为什么要担心呢?

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你知道天气将在四个小时的时间吗?你可以做一个非常自信的猜测。明天这个时候怎么样?你可以做一个相当自信的猜测。这一次,在十四天到底是什么?现在,你更自信。因为天气是一个混沌系统,对边界条件非常敏感。在这样一个系统,非常小的扰动可以非常大的变化,远远不够。现在,威斯康辛州(这就是OP的资料给他们的位置),让我们想想外部空气温度在05.00 2017年2月1日,14.00,2017年7月1日。你认为会更高吗? Will it be a difference of a few Kelvin, or more than ten Kelvin (18°F) difference? How confident are you in your answer? You're probably very very confident that the July temperature will be higher, by more than ten Kelvin. The climate is still reasonably predictable months or years ahead, even though it gets very hard to predict the weather reliably more than ten days ahead. Climate is a long-term system, and is not sensitive to boundary conditions in the same way that weather is. If you roll a fair six-sided dice once, you can't be very confident about whether a one will come up, however much you know about the air movements in the room when you throw the dice (you can be reasonably sure that the probability is 1/6, however much you know about the air). However, if you roll that dice 6000 times, you can be reasonably confident that one will come up a thousand times, give or take a hundred times, and you don't need to know anything about the air movements in the room. That's the difference between weather and climate; even though weather is just a manifestation of climate, it's just a sample from the climate distribution. We've built the global economy, patterns of habitation and movement, food supplies, energy systems, around the climate that we've had for the last few hundred years. And that should be ok, because climate, sea levels and sea pH levels normally take between thousands and millions of years to change radically. But our releases of greenhouse gases are now causing big changes to happen within years to decades: and it will be enormously expensive, disruptive, and cause huge suffering to billions of people, to reorient the global economy, patterns of habitation and movement, food supplies, and energy systems, to newer, unknown, unfamiliar climates, coupled with rising sea levels and ocean acidification.

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