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一切都影响着地球上的一切吗?

如果一个蝴蝶可以改变未来,然后不能每一行动保持未来的混乱?根据蝴蝶效应问题,这一定是这样,不是吗?如果这是一个准确的描述现实世界,如果很多事情行动不断在其他事情,有没有一种方法来预测或行动吗?如果是这样,我们为什么要担心呢?

回答

媒体喜欢蝴蝶效应,但他们也喜欢mis-portray这意味着什么。当洛伦兹给他的谈话(“可预测性:在巴西一只蝴蝶翅膀的拍打在德克萨斯州引发一场龙卷风?”)(http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf),让媒体关注的新兴领域,混沌理论。媒体关注他演讲的标题。听起来太酷了!他们不阅读论文的身体去看个究竟。标题被选为发人深省,而不是混乱。洛伦兹并不意味着一切都是相互关联的。蝴蝶效应仅仅意味着混沌系统对初始条件非常敏感。洛伦兹开始了他跟>…真正利益我们的问题是他们是否能做这方面,例如,两个特殊的天气情况不同,只要一个蝴蝶的直接影响通常会在足够的时间演变成两种情况不同了龙卷风的存在。 In more technical language, is the behavior of the atmosphere unstable with respect to perturbations of small amplitude? He ends it with > We must therefore leave our original question unanswered for a few more years, even while affirming our faith in the instability of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, today’s errors in weather forecasting cannot be blamed entirely nor even primarily upon the finer structure of weather patterns. They arise mainly from our failure to observe even the coarser structure with near completeness, our somewhat incomplete knowledge of the governing physical principles, and the inevitable approximations which must be introduced in formulating these principles as procedures which the human mind or the computer can carry out. That extreme sensitivity to initial conditions means that in theory, a scenario in which a butterfly in Brazil does or does not flag its wings just so are enough to create slightly different conditions that eventually result in tornado hitting Texas. Even if this is the case (and Lorenz did leave that as an open question in hist talk), it's not quite fair to say that the butterfly caused the tornado. The Lyapunov time for the disturbances created by a flap of a butterfly wing is very short. Saying that some event caused some later event else when the two events are separated by hundreds of Lyapunov times just doesn't make sense. What this means is that forty plus years after Lorenz's talk, weather forecasters still can't make an accurate two week forecast, and they may well not ever be able to do so. They can make now a fairly accurate five or seven day forecast, and that was something that was beyond the skills of meteorologists forty years ago. Caveat: Don't believe the forecast by your local TV station. They are notoriously inaccurate. If the US National Weather Service says there's a 100% chance of rain tomorrow, it's best to cancel your barbecue. If your local TV station weatherman says the same, there's a good chance tomorrow will be sunny.

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\ begingroup美元 + 1是的,优秀的答案。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -milancurcic
2014年10月19日2时34分许
\ begingroup美元你能解释一下李雅普诺夫时间或添加一个链接好吗?我不认为这是自解释的(我还用google搜索)。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -集市
2014年10月20日在32
1

\ begingroup美元混沌系统中的错误往往呈现指数级增长,甚至超过指数。假设一个指数误差增长和最初的不确定性\ epsilon_0美元,不确定性稍后台币将美元\ epsilon_0 \ exp (t / \τ)美元\τ是美元“李雅普诺夫时间。”Suppose your initial estimates are good to six decimal places. After 18 Lyapunov times, those six places of accuracy become zero places of accuracy. Start with a dozen places of accuracy and that's gone in three dozen Lyapunov times. \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -大卫Hammen
2014年10月20日的专机

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