看到它相对容易预测可能发生大地震,假设你已经监测变形的时间足够长时间,或多或少等于平均inter-seismic间隔(decades-centuries)。

原则上地震是简单,即。,的fault accumulates strain and then eventually slips/ruptures. The million dollar question is what triggers it, and till date there has not been a single reliable precursor.

就像预测一个木制的失败(例如,巴尔沙)坚持用手弯曲双方,即。,you know it will break more or less somewhere near the center, where the strain is highest (assuming homogeneity in properties and geometry) but getting the timing right is significantly harder and very difficult to reproduce. It is even harder in case of earthquakes, given the heterogeneity, non-linearity in the system.

所以时间会让它变得容易预测大地震的位置,当我们使用现代工具如GPS监测应变积累,InSAR等等,但找准时机,甚至在几年之内将更加困难。例如,我们知道,南部圣安德烈亚斯是由于对地震(基于滑移量赤字)最后大地震是在1857年。但是这次地震发生,今天,在五年或未来50年内,是未知的。在南加州说,额外的错误(例如,圣哈辛托和埃尔西诺)的情况略更加复杂。同样适用于伊斯坦布尔附近的北安纳托利亚断层,即。,we know that an earthquake will occur there soon, as the entire plate boundary except the part near Istanbul had ruptured at least once in the last hundred years. See在这里为更多的细节。

但对短期内找准时机预测现在(甚至IMHO在未来几十年)是不可能的。你唯一的希望是警报基于地震纵波到达但是已经开始和标题为你。注意:P波速度比到达的表面波造成的破坏所以你可能几秒钟(取决于你从震源)盖,自动关闭至关重要的东西,如气流在地下管道、地铁、发电厂等。

看到它相对容易预测可能发生大地震,假设你已经监测变形的时间足够长时间,或多或少等于平均inter-seismic间隔(decades-centuries)。

原则上地震是简单,即。,的fault accumulates strain and then eventually slips/ruptures. The million dollar question is what triggers it, and till date there has not been a single reliable precursor.

就像预测一个木制的失败(例如,巴尔沙)坚持用手弯曲双方,即。,you know it will break more or less somewhere near the center, where the strain is highest (assuming homogeneity in properties and geometry) but getting the timing right is significantly harder and very difficult to reproduce. It is even harder in case of earthquakes, given the heterogeneity, non-linearity in the system.

所以时间会让它变得容易预测大地震的位置,当我们使用现代工具如GPS监测应变积累,InSAR等等,但找准时机,甚至在几年之内将更加困难。例如,我们知道,南部圣安德烈亚斯是由于对地震(基于滑移量赤字)最后大地震是在1857年。但是这次地震发生,今天,在五年或未来50年内,是未知的。在南加州说,额外的错误(例如,圣哈辛托和埃尔西诺)的情况甚至更加复杂。同样适用于伊斯坦布尔附近的北安纳托利亚断层,即。,we know that an earthquake will occur there soon, as the entire plate boundary except the part near Istanbul had ruptured at least once in the last hundred years. See在这里为更多的细节。

但对短期内找准时机预测现在(甚至IMHO在未来几十年)是不可能的。你唯一的希望是警报基于地震纵波到达但是已经开始和标题对你。注意:P波速度比表面波到达,导致大部分的破坏所以你可能几秒钟(根据如何远你来自震源)盖,自动关闭关键之类的气流在地下管道、地铁、发电厂等。