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两个严重飓风由季风槽连接

在撰写本文时,周边地区北部地区(TC Lam)和昆士兰(TC玛西亚)在澳大利亚严重飓风的路径(4级,昆士兰一个- TC玛西娅预测达到5级类别量表用于澳大利亚和斐济)。这些气旋似乎由季风槽连接,如虚线所示从澳大利亚的天气地图气象局:

在这里输入图像描述

注意:这里是夏天。

此外,这些气旋相距一个非常大的距离(约1900公里的直线),这些飓风不合并。根据气象局,TC Lam南下,在阿纳姆北部地区的土地面积;和TC玛西亚将“钩”时内陆和头部向布里斯班昆士兰地区的南海岸(但它将会减弱为热带低之前)。投影路径(基于最新的和一致的信息局)图中红色箭头所示:

在这里输入图像描述

是什么气象机制,导致了链接的“替身”严重的飓风事件吗?

编辑-更新:TC Lam在猫4,登陆TC玛西娅现在登陆在猫5

回答

首先让我们国家显而易见的原因:1。温暖的太平洋沿着帝汶海和昆士兰海岸有利于热带气旋的形成,以下两个url显示太平洋北部和东部海岸的澳大利亚引用的时期。海洋)http://earth.nullschool.net/ 2015/02/15/2100Z / /主/波/覆盖= sea_surface_temp /拼写= 136.27,-24.99,512 b) http://earth.nullschool.net/ 2015/02/20/2100Z /海洋/主/波/覆盖= sea_surface_temp /拼写= 136.27,-24.99,512海温热带气旋生成所需的阈值是26.5 C所示[热带气旋生成海洋表面温度的阈值条件]2 [1]。赤道波浪的作用在赤道热带cyclongenesis和在这种情况下,交互与季风槽波。过滤OLR的结果见下图显示了赤道罗斯贝波的存在在这些地区和蓝色阴影的存在表明消极OLR(增强对流)。![在这里输入图像描述][2]-[热带波监测]来源[3]这个引用(赤道罗斯比波在热带气旋生成的作用。第二部分:IdealizedSimulations季风槽环境][4]明确指出>”只是太模拟时没有ER波异常字段,>太仍准恒定和TC创世纪不发生。只有>当ER波对TC《创世纪》开始的太。>结果暗示ER wave-MT交互产生比将会产生更多的TCs >如果没有这样的交互发生。”3. A question that can be raised is that we do know that presence of MJO also promotes tropical cyclongenesis as shown in this reference [Diagnosis of the MJO Modulation of Tropical CyclogenesisUsing an Empirical Index][5]. So how can does one state unequivocally that it is a Equatorial Rossby Wave and not the MJO's interaction with the MT that favours tropical cyclogenesis ? If we look at the strength of the MJO signal during and after the formation of TC Lam & Maria as shown in these set of images ![enter image description here][6] The amplitude of MJO signal is currently weak (less than 1 being present inside the circle) and is unlikely to be a significant contributor to the formation of tropical cyclones. This conclusion can be enhanced by looking at the filtered OLR contributions from MJO - ![enter image description here][7] The presence of positive OLR(in yellow over the Northern/Eastern part of Australia indicating suppressed convection. 4. Both the MJO as well as tropical waves favour the formation of twin cyclones as shown by references [Dynamical Aspects Of Twin Tropical cyclones Associated with the Madden Julien Oscillation ][8] and [A Case Study of an Outbreak of Twin Tropical Cyclones][9] **Update** In an earlier question that I had asked //www.hoelymoley.com/questions/2803/relation-between-direction-of-shear-and-cyclone-formation one can clearly see a working example of easterly shear favoring the formation of tropical cyclone. So easterly shear as shown in the map below is defined as the difference in the zonal winds at two different pressure levels (850 hPa and 200 hPa). Since by convention easterly winds are noted to be negative increasing positive values of shear is easterly shear(as one travels vertically) and the opposite is westerly shear. The following shear plot is a mean of several days and one can see the easterly shear over the Australian regions where the cyclone formation took place. $zonal\_shear = U_{850} - U_{200} $ The data is from NCAR NCEP reanalysis. [![enter image description here][10]][10] [1]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05006.1 [2]: http://i.stack.imgur.com/XU7JZ.gif [3]: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/ [4]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009MWR3115.1 [5]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JAS3101.1 [6]: http://i.stack.imgur.com/7qc3c.png [7]: http://i.stack.imgur.com/jyRP7.gif [8]: http://schubert.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/refereed/nietoetal1996_dynamical.pdf [9]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008MWR2541.1 [10]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/ej2pR.png

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\ begingroup美元是有原因的强大的双气旋了澳大利亚上周。它被称为赤道罗斯比波。”()的飓风没有形式,因为季风爆发,因为他们经常做在我们的地区,但由于另一个大气现象经过澳大利亚地区,“飓风专家教授乔恩·诺特说。这现象是赤道罗斯贝波的东西,根据气象局,它产生西风,热带云和降水通过一个地区。结果:气旋。 \ endgroup美元
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2015年4月20日在38

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