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一只蝴蝶扇动它的翅膀真的会导致龙卷风在一个遥远的位置吗?

我听说极端暴雨事件可以简单地通过一只蝴蝶拍动翅膀在一个遥远的位置。真的这么小的扰动在空气中在一个地方会导致如此大的灾难性事件在另一个单独的位置?如果我们怎么知道这是可能的,甚至这怎么可能?

回答

[*可预测性:在巴西一只蝴蝶翅膀的拍打引发龙卷风在德克萨斯州? *)(http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf),爱德华·洛伦茨的邀请演讲的标题在第139届美国科学促进协会会议在1972年举行。这是“蝴蝶效应”一词的起源。吸引人的标题表明,答案一定是“是的!”Why else ask that question? The bulk of the talk says the answer is "Nobody knows." "Nobody knows" doesn't jibe well with a sensationalistic, unscientific press. That a butterfly in Brazil *might* trigger a tornado in Texas does. Lorenz had discovered in 1961 that early 1960s weather simulations were incredibly sensitive to initial conditions. Did this mean the weather itself is incredibly sensitive to minute changes? That the answer to this question is also "yes" marked a very important discovery. Weather and climate are the quintessential chaotic systems. Lorenz's work marked the start of modern chaos theory. His seminal 1963 paper, [*Deterministic nonperiodic flow*](http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469%281963%29020%3C0130%3ADNF%3E2.0.CO%3B2), has been cited 13479 times, per Google scholar. (In comparison, his 1972 talk has "only" been cited 345 times.) The vast majority of those 13479 citations came after his 1972 AAAS talk. Sometimes it takes a catchy title to catch the attention of a scientist. Taking Lorenz's talk literally, asking whether a flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil truly can set off a tornado in Texas, misses the point of his talk and of his work. The key point is that weather is chaotic. The accuracy of a detailed weather forecast fourteen days from now is rather low because that two week interval is well beyond the relevant Lyapunov timescale for such detailed predictions. What about that butterfly? It's wing flap is a very small perturbation. It's rather difficult to say that that flap caused anything of significance to happen because the relevant timescale for such infinitesimally small perturbations is very short.

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\ begingroup美元我听说“蝴蝶效应”一词已经建议他基于状态空间图看起来就像一个门外汉,但我没有这个轶事权威来源。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -gerrit ♦
2014年5月1日行传十三章36节的一句话
\ begingroup美元这是一个非常好的答案——简洁,信息,继续话题。它真的值得一号和接受的答案。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -kwknowles
2014年5月8日15:24吗

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