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大(湿)风暴真的能引发高震级地震?

在2011年AGU的秋季会议上,这个问题海报声称来自台湾的水侵蚀的潮湿的风暴过早可能引发高震级地震,米\通用电气6.0美元。如果这是真的,这一发现不仅是非常重要的我们的理解地震力学还危害预防。这一理论真的是正确的吗?

回答

(2011 AGU的海报)[1]被引用一次,由[Burtin _et al_。(2013)][2]<一口> 1 < / >一同晚餐,他说在他们的抽象_…事件活动呈正相关,降水强度…_——但更重要的是,在论文的主体,这样:>此外,它已被认为降雨可能影响地震的发生,通过向下从表面(如流体扩散。,et al ., 2007)或侵蚀卸货的活动断裂(如。Wdowinski Tsukanov, 2011),但这些机制需要特殊或很长时间的沉淀,他们可能会导致重大气象司机和地震响应之间的延迟几年。由于这些原因,我们也排除rainfall-triggered地震可能成为源近地表的活动我们已经检测到。但是请注意,在研究过程中,他们29事件记录,M l <子> < /订阅> 0.7 - -5.7。同时[水列夫_et al._(2012)][5] <一口> 2 < /一口>——日记我_do_信任——说在他们的文摘:>本研究涉及的影响强大的太平洋飓风堪察加半岛的地震,日本和菲律宾。我们完整的地震目录用于这些地区跨几十年。发现来自西太平洋的气旋通常不产生显著的对这三个地区的地震活动性触发作用,至少在短期内,在几个星期。 The ground motion generated by cyclones, which might be treated as a trigger, does not have amplitudes above those in the motion due to numerous local earthquakes of moderate magnitudes (∼4–5) and larger teleseismic earthquakes. The only two recent publications claiming any link at all between cyclones/extreme precipitation events and significant seismic activity (i.e. not "minor" landslips) are from sources I don't trust: [a 2013 paper][3] in a journal I've never heard of ([International Journal of Geosciences][4]) before, and [a 2014 publication in "Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussion][7]. I'm dubious about them _not_ because they are open access but because I am concerned about methodology and sources. While this mechanism was mentioned to me as plausible as an undergraduate at Cambridge in approximately 2012, the department's view seems to have shifted (per Burtin et al - Neils Hovius is very senior in the dept). The current evidence does not appear to support any short-term link between extreme weather events and significant seismic activity. Long-term links have not been ruled out but I have not found any substantiating evidence for such connections. ---------- <sup>1</sup> disclaimer: it turns out I know two of the coauthors, including one of the senior ones, personally. <sup>2</sup> [Original in Russian also available][6] [1]: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.U53E..06W [2]: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrf.20137/abstract [3]: http://web.a.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=21568359&AN=90488281&h=sisqgNzOZmXChltlUYVlqEokXffERYXOnz7t5HcC%2fXF71R6OwQ6fpHR%2bH34eozExJ9sUQqsq2AFpsR7P2Egl%2bg%3d%3d&crl=c [4]: http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg/ [5]: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0742046312020078 [6]: http://www.maikonline.com/maik/showArticle.do?auid=VAH17QFXBD [7]: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/2/935/2014/nhessd-2-935-2014.pdf

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2016年6月5日21:28

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