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追风人如何找到现货?

在我看来,龙卷风是很难预测在三个不同的方面:

龙卷风的大小约为100 ~ 1000米,不能代表在天气模型或检测到有限的气象站。
龙卷风持续很短的生命周期(~小时)。目前,strong-convention活动不能预测24 h或48 h产品。
龙卷风的原因是复杂的。它还增加的不确定性参数化或数值方案描述了过程控制龙卷风。

但是,我听说过一些勇敢的人(追风)周围寻找龙卷风。这是很酷的体验神奇的大自然为图所示。

但是他们是如何知道的信息何时何地新龙卷风会出现吗吗?

PS:我的问题是提出由于悲伤的消息由龙卷风在江苏98人死亡,中国2016-06-23

回答

它开始通过识别天与良好的剪切叠加和地基不稳定。在美国我们有[风暴预报中心][1],帮助指出这样的天观察模型。通常最早迹象表明得到螺纹梳刀的注意力是一个合理的槽进入充足的水分和温暖的地区(有时截止上层低)工作。然后前一天上午,最终得到目标区域缩小进一步通过观察可见和水汽图像,上层空气地图,和地面天气数据。基本上一般集中在表面特征……方面,低压中心,drylines,流出边界。追逐者通常会进入该地区当天午后,vortex和龙卷风是最常见的在下午和晚上。一旦进入目标区,追逐者留意任何可用的卫星图像,地面天气数据,以及天空,寻找最初的风暴发展和可能需要的任何调整到目标区域。在很多情况下,云将开始(建立)[2],或许在发展脉动,给出指示的青睐的地区之前(帽)[3]坏了,他们发展成vortex。一旦风暴开始,利益成为强大和更加孤立风暴识别开发旋转,成为vortex。 In the northern hemisphere, the "business area" of a supercell is usually near the southern end, where a supercell will typically start to develop some sort of hooked shape, as all shown in this supercell image: [![Supercell][4]][4] (Source: [What is a Supercell Thunderstorm, by Dennis Mersereau, on Vane][5]) Most (though not all) supercells move approximately northeast. So knowing that, as the day evolves, a typical chaser will make choices to help end up on the south half of the storm so their visibility and path are not blocked by the stronger rain and hail. Then it comes down to road options, and paying attention to the storm and environment around you to watch whether the rotation is tightening up in the cloud base, as well as being aware of the temperature and wind for indications of how the storm may evolve. When it comes to models, you're right that they absolutely can't identify the tornado. However, convective models (like the HRRR) do often indicate the approximate areas where storms will develop a few hours ahead of time. But it doesn't appear models will be forecasting where tornadoes will form with any great reliability for quite a while still. But in terms of hunting down tornadic storms, convective models, and for that matter any large deal of real-time data, certainly aren't a necessity. People have been chasing storms quite successfully long before all that was available. It's more reasonable than most realize. You choose the climatologically favorable tornado seasons to start, then seek out favorable areas within the large-scale pattern, and then refine your target by interpreting the conditions until you find yourself magically on the southern end of a hook, [even without radar help][6]. For more input, I also suggest Mike Hollingshead's amazing high quality graphic tutorial, with a very useful snippet [available on his StormAndSky website][7]. It looks like tornadoes are [quite regular occurrences][8] around China. I know of chasers around Europe, Australia, and South America, but am surprised there aren't more in China. Maybe that is soon to change? [1]: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_congestus_cloud [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capping_inversion [4]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/hJh7Y.jpg [5]: http://thevane.gawker.com/what-is-a-supercell-thunderstorm-1564133584 [6]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercell#/media/File:Supercell02.svg [7]: https://stormandsky.com/stormanalysis101 [8]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tornadoes_tornado_outbreaks_in_Asia

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