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海平面上升是由于气候变化

我一直试图理解围绕海平面上升的论点,而不是很远。

那些声称海平面上升是微不足道的通常断言,我们无法统计链接温室气体浓度上升,海平面上升。我认为这是不正确的,但是我没有的知识来分析,没有听说过这种说法驳斥了。

我想知道是否海平面上升与温室气体排放和其背后的机制是什么。

回答

这是一个困难表明似乎直接关系。表面上,温暖=少冰,文件在“咄”,虽然它可能就是这么简单,显示因果关系是一种更加困难。的热膨胀方面问题是容易。温暖的空气慢慢变暖的海洋表面变暖海洋。大约90%的热量被人为气候变化目前进入海洋。[这][1]或[这][2]。这是一个巨大的热量,但海洋是足够大的扩张,增加温度移动很缓慢。约1/3的当前海平面上升是由于热膨胀,工程量约1/3的1英寸每10年,每年,约1毫米。(仅热膨胀)。【来源。][3] Melting glaciers are more difficult to show a direct relation. By this [source][4] there are over 130,000 glaciers in the world, and while there is a fair bit of overlap, to properly show a causal relation, you'd need to look at individual glaciers to determine the cause. You wouldn't need to look at all 130,000, but you'd need a solid sampling to demonstrate a causal relation. What's more, under the right conditions, glaciers can grow larger as the local weather grows warmer. Warmer weather can lead to increased snowfall, which can enable glaciers to grow, even in a warmer climate. Article on that [here][5]. The two simplest ways to make this argument is looking at the percentage of glaciers that are melting or to look at total ice volume in those glaciers. (For the 2nd one, I'd ignore the continental ice sheets and just look at the smaller glaciers), but it can be done either way. By this [article][6], about 90% of glaciers are shrinking world wide. If climate wasn't changing, I'd expect that to be closer to 50%. Even when climate is changing, for example, when ice ages stop are start, those are usually driven by the Northern Hemisphere having colder summers (begins the ice age) or the Northern Hemisphere having warmer summers (ends the ice age), with the Southern Hemisphere behaving in the opposite way. That suggests to me that even during the rise or fall of ice ages, 90% of the glaciers moving in the same direction probably doesn't happen. 90% of glaciers losing ice appears to be strong evidence of being caused by climate change, but that ratio lacks statistical teeth because there's no historical data to show that 90% of the world's glaciers losing ice is unusual. It seems unusual, but it's difficult to prove. The other avenue would be to look at the total amount of loss of ice in the world's glaciers. See page below. I didn't see a number listed anywhere, but a quick calculation, Earth's glaciers are losing on average about 60 cubic miles of ice in an average year. That's pretty significant ice loss. cdn.antarcticglaciers.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/images_Assessment-Reports_AR5-WG1_Chapter-04_Fig4-25_errata.jpg from [source][7] But both these arguments have the same weakness. Both seem to be very good evidence, neither shows a causal relation. The only way to do it scientifically would be to go through a large enough sample size of glaciers and show a pattern of causality. At least, I don't see any other way to show a direct relation. That said, saying "90% of the worlds glaciers are losing ice" is a pretty good argument, as is saying that Earth's glaciers lose about 60 cubic miles of ice in an average year. [1]: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=12 [2]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/18/this-is-where-90-percent-of-global-warming-is-going/?utm_term=.92efbff1e8fb [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#21st_century [4]: https://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g01130_glacier_inventory/ [5]: http://www.livescience.com/48256-asia-karakoram-glaciers-stability.html [6]: https://www.skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm [7]: http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/mapping-worlds-glaciers/

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