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地震预测是可能的吗?

东北部和东部海岸的地震后,我越过几本书讨论地震预测的有效性作为一门学科,但没有发现重大的突破。应该及时改变我们的方法和模型,使预测减少伤亡?

要清晰,我不感兴趣的一般评估地震灾害(即大小分布在接下来的25 - 50年),而是在短期预测精确足以秩序疏散。我知道疏散是一个有争议的问题…

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地震预测是一个有争议的问题,尤其是后(l 'Aqula试验)(http://www.dramsch.net/archives/75-The-lAquila-trial-Getting-the-big-picture.html)。然而,让我试着精致的预测将来可能和抑制这种发展。我们确实有一些了解地震和断裂机制。然而,对于预测的规模小时疏散(足够的),我们必须考虑以下。地壳中应力场基本上是应用地震所需的压力。然而,这些都是难以衡量和不同的压力可能适用于同一地区(本地、地区全球应力场)。看看世界地图压力,如何混乱的不同影响。# # #压力![世界压力地图][1]这些压力也非常难以衡量。这些方法包括(压力源世界地图):+地震震源机制+生皮疹和钻井引起骨折+地应力测量(套取岩心、水力压裂钻孔插床)+年轻地质数据(从断层滑动分析和火山口对齐)这些有时可能会让矛盾(应力张量)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_stress_tensor)。这些原因之一是原位测量往往比震源机制本地化(举个例子)。 But when we look at the map, we do have a lot of data (27.000 data points). Here another big problem comes into play: ### Material While geophysicists like to assume that the ground is homogeneous, it really isn't. A rupture may occur when the material at a fault fails under pressure. Yet the material is highly diverse and includes cracks and fractures that make it virtually impossible to make an accurate assessment. The material may act elastic, ductile or brittle and that may be location-dependent. From this you cannot say if a small rupture triggers a larger earthquake due to [stress transfer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coulomb_stress_transfer) or if it stays a small earthquake. ### What would be to improve This would make a simulation highly chaotic and the prediction would have a high probability to be false positive or false negative, therefore, decreasing the reliability significantly. In the end we would have to improve our understanding of: + Stress fields + Stress-Strain relations + Rupture mechanisms + Material science and location ### Early Warning in California Nevertheless, an earthquake early warning (**EEW**) system is being implemented in California (and tested). It's called [CISN ShakeAlert](http://www.shakealert.org/cisn/). They can use the trick that so-called [P-waves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-wave) of earthquakes are faster (and less destructive) than [surface waves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_wave#Surface_waves). This can give valuable time to safety-relevant systems like nuclear plants or high speed trains. But this is in a very early stage, when an earthquake already happened and is bound to arrive somewhere. (I would have loved to put down more links, but my rep is too low, so see Wikipedia for [Rupture Mechanics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fracture_mechanics), [Stress-Strain relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stress%E2%80%93strain_curve), the [World Stress Map](http://dc-app3-14.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/stress_data/stress_data_frame.html) website and the CISN ShakeAlert website.) [1]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/rU0oi.gif

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\ begingroup美元一个很好的答案。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -猎鹿人
2014年5月21日14时许吗
\ begingroup美元不错的答案。早期预警,日本有一个系统来检测p波在2011年。时间很短,80秒373英里,显然更接近震中。江南登录网址app下载technologyreview.com/s/423274/80-seconds-of-warning-for-tokyo它工作要刹住火车和关闭煤气管道。我不确定有多少使用超过80秒或更少的警告,没有足够的时间去一个避难所,但也许搬下东西或平面旁边一堵墙,这取决于有效传播的警告。 \ endgroup美元
- - - - - -userLTK
2017年11月5日19:33

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