政府间气候变化专门委员会2013年物理科学基础报告说0.4米——0.6米。现在有些过时和http://www.atmos -化学-物理- discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd - 15 - 20059 - 2015. - html似乎有争议。它是安全的地方政府计划的基础上0.4 - 0.6米,或有另一个价值,会更好吗?他们的抽象总结如下供参考。>有证据的冰融化,海平面上升到+ 5 - 9米,和极端风暴前间冰期是小于1°C比今天暖和。人造气候迫使比穿越营力更强大和更快速,但大部分可以学到通过结合见解从古气候,气候建模和持续的观察。我们认为冰原接触海洋容易受到非线性解体海洋变暖,我们假定,冰盖质量损失可以用一个倍增时间近似至少几米的海平面上升。翻倍的10、20或40年收益率50几米的海平面上升,100年或200年。古气候数据表明地下海洋变暖导致冰盖冰架融化,放电。暴露我们的气候模型放大反馈在南大洋,缓慢的南极底层水的形成,提高海洋温度冰架附近接地线,而冷却表面的海洋和海冰覆盖和水柱稳定增加。 Ocean surface cooling, in the North Atlantic as well as the Southern Ocean, increases tropospheric horizontal temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, which drive more powerful storms. We focus attention on the Southern Ocean's role in affecting atmospheric CO2 amount, which in turn is a tight control knob on global climate. The millennial (500–2000 year) time scale of deep ocean ventilation affects the time scale for natural CO2 change, thus the time scale for paleo global climate, ice sheet and sea level changes. This millennial carbon cycle time scale should not be misinterpreted as the ice sheet time scale for response to a rapid human-made climate forcing. Recent ice sheet melt rates have a doubling time near the lower end of the 10–40 year range. We conclude that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous. Earth's energy imbalance, which must be eliminated to stabilize climate, provides a crucial metric.