看到它相对容易预测可能发生大地震,假设你已经监测变形的时间足够长时间,或多或少等于平均inter-seismic间隔(decades-centuries)。原则上地震是简单,即。故障累积应变,然后最终/破裂。百万美元问题是触发它,至今为止没有一个可靠的前兆。就像预测一个木制的失败(例如,巴尔沙)坚持用手弯曲双方,即。,你知道它会打破或多或少的中心,附近的应变是最高的(假设同质性属性和几何)但正确的时机明显越来越难以复制。它更难在地震的情况下,考虑到非均质性,系统中的非线性。所以时间会让它变得容易预测大地震的位置,当我们使用现代工具如GPS监测应变积累,InSAR等等,但找准时机,甚至在几年之内将更加困难。例如,我们知道,南部圣安德烈亚斯是由于对地震(基于滑移量赤字)最后大地震是在1857年。但是这次地震发生,今天,在五年或未来50年内,是未知的。 Having said that additional faults in SoCal (e.g., San Jacinto and Elsinore) make the situation slightly more complex. Same goes for the North Anatolian fault near Istanbul, i.e., we know that an earthquake will occur there soon, as the entire plate boundary except the part near Istanbul had ruptured at least once in the last hundred years. See [here][1] for more details. But getting the timing right for short term forecast right now (and IMHO even in the next few decades) is impossible. Your only hope is alarms based on P-wave arrivals but then the earthquake has already started and heading for you. Note: P waves arrive faster than the surface waves which cause most of the destruction so you might have a few seconds (depending on far you are from the hypocenter) to take cover, automatically shutdown crucial stuff like gas flow in underground pipelines, subways, power plants etc. [1]: http://www.ipgp.fr/~armijo/paraseminario/Stein-97.pdf