一篇关于这个昨天发表在《自然气候变化:[桑迪侵蚀海岸线受到威胁][1](Vousdoukas et al . 2020年)。>而海岸线变化可以广泛的组合结果潜在的腐蚀性或粘连的因素,有明显的因果关系提高海平面和海岸线后退,指着增加海岸侵蚀问题。气候变化也会影响波浪和风暴潮,是沿海形态的重要动力。研究计算预测的海岸线撤退。他们计算四个预测:两个2050,两个2100年,根据气候变化场景(RCP 4.5和8.5 RCP)。这里是结果:>假设没有物理限制潜在的沿海撤退,到本世纪中叶我们项目可能(5 th -第95个百分位)全球平均长期海岸线变化,从-78.1到-1.1米和-98.1到0.3米,分别在RCP 4.5和8.5 RCP(负值表示侵蚀)。到本世纪末,腐蚀的趋势变得更加主导我们的项目可能的范围从-164.2到-14.8米和-240在RCP RCP 8.5, 4.5和-35.3米。这是地图上的样子(图1):[![图1 Vousdoukas 2020][2]][2]的标题写着:>预计长期海岸线变化。模拟,预测海岸线> 2050年变化(a、c)和2100 (b, d)在RCP (a, b)和4.5 > 8.5 RCP (c, d)。 Values represent the median change and > positive/negative values, respectively, express accretion/erosion in > metres, relative to 2010. The global average median change is shown in > the inset text for each case, along with the 5th–95th percentile > range. Note that this projected retreat is a combination of two factors: the ambient shoreline change (AC) driven by geological, anthropogenic and other physical factors, and the shoreline retreat due to sea level rise (R). But R is the dominant factor, with a worldwide contribution of 82 % to the total retreat (with regional variations, see their figure 2). In summary, climate change leads to sea level rise, which in turns leads to coastline erosion. **Sea erosion is not the opposite of sea level rising, it is a direct consequence of it**. [1]: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0 [2]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/tOrsL.png