是的。当前气候变化很可能会增加地球上可耕种的土地。然而,它将在一个较高的社会成本和生物多样性* *的* *,我不能强调足够的至关重要的生物多样性对生态系统的健康和人类食品安全。考虑也类似于矿业,存款的价值不仅是相关矿物的总量,还其浓度,我们也不得不考虑如何强化食品生产所允许的一块土地。在这方面,气候变化可能导致的损失高生产力的领域,只有获得补偿的大片的营养价值在苔原土壤。您还应该考虑当前种植土地的退化的社会影响和经济损失的粮食生产pole-wards移动。与某种程度的确定性回答这个问题是非常复杂的,因为我们不知道如何气候会改变,但是一些研究已经解决了这个问题。就是一个很好的例子(可耕种的土地的全球分销:当前的模式和可能的气候变化的敏感性)[1]。他们指出:我们估计,气候变化,全球气候模拟的>模型,将扩大耕地适宜性的一个额外的16%,主要在北半球高纬度地区>。然而,热带地区>(主要是非洲,南美洲北部,墨西哥和中美洲和>大洋洲)将经历一个小的适用性下降>气候变化。 Figure 4 of the paper shows the current "land suitability index" worldwide. [![enter image description here][2]][2] You can see how the north of America and Eurasia show large expanses (although quite exaggerated by the map projection) of land not suitable for cultivation due to the cold temperatures. This data can be downloaded [here][3], and I've used it to plot the following figure that shows the mean cultivation suitability index as a function of latitude. It is also plotted the land area as a function of latitude as derived from [ETOPO][4]: [![enter image description here][5]][5] As you can see, pole-wards of 56° there is a significant amount of land of which none is suitable for cultivation. However, it is clear that temperature is not the whole picture, and aridity around 25° of latitude can significantly drop cultivation suitability. I found interesting to see that the left (equator-wards) side of the main peak in cultivation suitability currently at 37° lies at a latitude with a lot of land, so if that end is lost to aridity, the gain of land on its (right) pole-wards end will be smaller due to the downwards trends of land area towards the pole. Nevertheless, as I mentioned, models suggest climate change will increase the overall land surface suitable for agriculture. Another study: [Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change][6]. Focus on temperature and shows in Fig. 1 how the line that divides temperature regime suitable from cultivation of cereals will migrate northwards under the projected climate change: [![enter image description here][7]][7] However, they highlight the challenges for cultivation in high latitudes, which present a much more dramatic seasonal contrast that traditional crop lands: > By 2099, roughly 76% of the boreal region might reach > crop feasible conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading > edge of the feasible conditions will shift northwards. **However, most of the > newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly > variations in climatic water balances**, a critical component of any > future land-use and management decisions. [the cite above was edited for simplification and context] [1]: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2002.00294.x [2]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/YmMgb.png [3]: https://nelson.wisc.edu/sage/data-and-models/atlas/maps.php?datasetid=19&includerelatedlinks=1&dataset=19 [4]: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/global.html [5]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/UkDPh.png [6]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-26321-8 [7]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/gWVXQ.png