正如你指出的那样,(预测)的影响全球气候变化是特定于地区的。许多地区的一般推理预测相似但是,还有一些值得注意的底线(如接触到越来越多的洪水,聚焦于你的问题),所以我将试着总结那些富人和可靠的来源。- - - - - - - - - - -(马里兰州海授予其风暴潮页网站州)[1]:>因为海平面上升、洪水由于风暴将恶化,使住宅和建筑物已经受到风暴潮将维持更大的伤害。强大的风暴会损害住所或淹没低洼地区高潮汐和风力。一些马里兰社区完全可以在水下。>……>一个特别报道,高水:海平面上升和切萨皮克湾,提供了一个全面的原因和后果增加洪水沿着马里兰的海岸线。这个包,由马里兰州海格兰特的季度与切萨皮克湾杂志,考察了科学的理解和预测海平面上升的速度切萨皮克地区;对人类和环境造成的影响;适应和应对政策,正在进行或正在考虑。 [An online interactive page][2] offers videos, photos, and **an interactive map showing flooding that is predicted to occur**. **The PDF of "Come High Water: Sea Level Rise and Chesapeake Bay" has more detailed explanations, data, and citations, and is available from that page.** [On its Rising Sea Level page][3]: > [Scientists have forecasted][4] an increase of as much as 2.1 feet in the Chesapeake Bay by 2050. And by the end of this century, that number could be 3.7 feet or higher. Scientists have identified several reasons, which are described in a video produced by Maryland Sea Grant (below): > - As oceans around the world grow hotter, they also expand because of the chemistry of salt water. > - Glaciers and ice caps, including the icy regions around Greenland, are melting. > - Since the end of the last ice age, the land around Maryland has been naturally sinking a tiny bit each year — a trend that has accelerated over recent decades. That article linked to where the above quote says "[Scientists have forecasted...][4]" has a worthwhile introduction to answer your question and provide context to the source: > **State Should Consider Longevity of Structures Built Near Water, Report Says** > Maryland residents should plan for the state’s coastal waters to rise by 2.1 feet by the year 2050 and by 3.7 feet or more by the century’s end, according to a new analysis by scientific experts prepared for Gov. Martin O’Malley. The panel reviewed recent evidence about sea level rise in Maryland and globally. ---------- Based on your asking about specific studies that quantify these [climate change] effects: if you are interested in more detailed data and prediction methods, you can easily find various climate forecasting models if you search for them. One example is [NARCCAP][5]. It and many other climate forecasting models are public-domain but fairly technical. Another example is https://www.data.gov/climate/coastalflooding/ Many climate change impacts are predicted based on environmental models and the data sets they produce. **For a glimpse at modeling efforts very relevant to your question, you could explore this paper: [DesAutels, 2000. Upper-Ocean Influences on Hurricane Intensification Modeling.][6] Or this: [Mousavi et al, 2009. Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding.][7]** ---------- TL;DR: Sea level is predicted to rise due to climate change, to varying extents place-to-place, and that rise in sea level will increase the magnitude of damage many places are exposed to due to storms, the impact of which is also predicted to worsen in itself due to increased intensity and frequency. [1]: http://www.mdsg.umd.edu/topics/coastal-flooding/storm-surges [2]: http://www.chesapeakequarterly.net/sealevel/index.php [3]: http://www.mdsg.umd.edu/topics/coastal-flooding/rising-sea-level [4]: http://www.mdsg.umd.edu/news/scientists-unveil-new-projections-sea-level-rise-maryland [5]: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ [6]: http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/53046/48625420-MIT.pdf?sequence=2 [7]: https://ceprofs.tamu.edu/folivera/Papers%20PDFs/2011%20Global%20warming%20and%20hurricanes%20-%20The%20potential%20impact%20ofhurricane%20intensification%20and%20SLR%20on%20coastal%20flooding%20.pdf
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