首先值得证明97%的气候科学家一致认为,让全球气候变暖的趋势在过去的一个世纪里很可能由于人类活动。> w·r·l·安德雷格,“气候变化专家可信度”,美国国家科学院的学报> 107号27卷,12107 - 12109(> 2010年6月21日);DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.1003187107。> > p·t·多兰& m·k·齐默尔曼”研究的科学共识>气候变化,“Eos交易美国地球物理学联合会北京大学出版社90年版> 3(2009),22个;eo030002 DOI: 10.1029/2009。> > n》“超越象牙塔:气候变化科学共识>,“科学卷。306。5702年,p . 1686(2004年12月3日);> DOI: 10.1126 / science.1103618。但人类比例的上升的原因是什么?可能几乎所有。 The scientist Gavin Schmidt from NASA was asked this question on [realclimate.org][1] His response was as follows: > Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused > cooling, and so the warming there has been (and some) is caused by a > combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. > I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be > roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of > ~0.5 deg C, I'd say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming. > Slightly larger range if you want a large range for the internal > stuff. The rapid increase in the human-driven component of the forcing are increasingly dwarfing the small, slow natural forcings, rendering them increasingly irrelevant. ![enter image description here][2] [1]: http://www.realclimate.org/?comments_popup=1853#comment-142358 [2]: http://i.stack.imgur.com/epPSa.jpg