你可能看看(最近的IPCC评估报告的技术总结(5)][1]主题焦点元素# 3是“比较预测从先前的IPCC评估和观察”说:全球平均气温异常> > > # # #相对于1961 - 1990年的意思是,公司异常一直积极和自2001年以来>大于0.25°C。观察的范围一般在>早些时候IPCC预测的程度(TFE.3 >图1,中间左)这也适用于耦合模型>相互比对项目阶段5 (CMIP5)结果(TFE.3,图1;>中间右),观察记录谎言>范围内的模型预测,但低端的羽流。太>皮喷发是在1991年11.2(请参阅常见问题的讨论火山>如何影响气候系统),导致一段时间的相对>全球平均冷却在1990年代初。IPCC第一,第二次和>第三次评估报告(目前为止,SAR和焦油)不包括>火山爆发的影响,因此未能包括冷却>与皮爆发有关。AR4 AR5,然而,>包括来自火山的影响,成功地模拟了>相关的冷却。在1995 - 2000年全球平均气温>异常非常变量a这种可变性>的重要部分是由于大1997 - 1998年的厄尔尼诺现象和强劲的背靠背> 1999 - 2001年拉尼娜。预测与这些>相关评估报告不要试图捕捉的实际演变>这些厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件,但包含它们的来源>由于所包含的自然变化的不确定性,例如,>的范围个人CMIP3和CMIP5模拟和>投影(TFE.3,图1)。灰色TFE.3楔,图1 >(右)对应的指示性*可能*范围年度>温度,这是代表的决定>浓度通路(rcp) 20年的意思是评估值> 2016 - 2035(参见图TS.14讨论和11.3.6节>详细信息)。从1998年到2012年,观察估计基本上>在区间的低端的场景就在之前的评估报告>和CMIP3 CMIP5预测。{2.4; Box > 9.2} I've attached an image as well from that summary: > ![previous IPCC temperature performance][2] > > Estimated changes in the > observed globally and annually averaged surface temperature anomaly > relative to 1961–1990 (in °C) since 1950 compared with the range of > projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Values are harmonized > to start from the same value at 1990. Observed global annual > temperature anomaly, relative to 1961–1990, from three data sets is > shown as squares and smoothed time series as solid lines from the > Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data > set 4 (HadCRUT4; bright green), Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature > Analysis (MLOST; warm mustard) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies > Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP; dark blue) data sets. The > coloured shading shows the projected range of global annual mean near > surface temperature change from 1990 to 2035 for models used in FAR > (Figure 6.11), SAR (Figure 19 in the TS of IPCC 1996), TAR (full range > of TAR, Figure 9.13(b)). TAR results are based on the simple climate > model analyses presented in this assessment and not on the individual > full three-dimensional climate model simulations. For the AR4 results > are presented as single model runs of the CMIP3 ensemble for the > historical period from 1950 to 2000 (light grey lines) and for three > SRES scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) from 2001 to 2035. For the three SRES > scenarios the bars show the CMIP3 ensemble mean and the likely range > given by –40 % to +60% of the mean as assessed in Chapter 10 of AR4. [1]: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf [2]: http://i.stack.imgur.com/rQPb0.png